Super Rugby Round 1 Preview Part 2

Super Rugby is back and excitement mounts, with round one starting on Friday after the annual months of speculation as to which teams have done well with acquisitions and which teams will suffer from losses in personnel.

Some coaches are more secure in their positions than others, whose jobs may be all too precariously poised, and with World Cup selection up for grabs there is more at stake for players than merely Super Rugby glory.

We have three games on Friday, three on Saturday, and one on Sunday, and by the end of 560 minutes of rugby, we’ll have a far better idea as to which teams will reap success from a good summer’s preparations, and we’ll be able to assess more accurately which teams are likely to enjoy success this season. 

This season could be decisive in Blues coach Sir John Kirwan’s coaching career, especially since Sir Graham Henry and Mike Byrne are no longer there to assist him. The big question is whether the Blues have the backline skill and the squad depth to earn a play-off spot.

Having the wily Jimmy Cowan at 9 adds considerably to the Blues communal team intellect and tactical acumen and Charles Piutau provides a constant attacking threat. It’s feasible too to believe that their pack will win far more possession than some critics expect of them. The Blues defence was tight in 2014 and their defensive organization and commitment is likely to be similarly excellent this year.

Many pundits regard the Chiefs as probable contenders for a semi-final at least, and perhaps to go all the way. The tight five is formidable and the backline potentially lethal, with Sonny Bill Williams back as attacking kingpin. They look a neatly balanced squad.

It won’t be easy at North Harbour though, and the result could be closer than some expect.

Key players: Sonny Bill Williams returns to spearhead the Chiefs attack. He is a potential Super Rugby and World Cup winning kingpin. The prodigiously talented Damian McKenzie, New Zealand age grade Player of the Year 2014, makes his Chiefs debut at flyhalf (first five-eighth.) at age 19, in for the unavailable Aaron Cruden.  Josh Bekhuis will be out to show he is the major acquisition for the Blues he has been heralded to be. No-one doubts 51 Test cap Jimmy Cowan’s competitiveness but will he still be sharp enough a few weeks shy of his 33^rd birthday? Jerome Kaino will lead the Blues from the front.

The big match-ups: The Chiefs loose trio, All Black Sam Cane and debutants Johan Bardoul and Maama Vaipulu, take on the Blues accomplished Jerome Kaino, Brendon O'Connor and Steven Luatua. That makes for a tough introduction to the big-time for Bardoul and Vaipulu. The clash between the respective 10s, Ihaia West and Damian McKenzie, two of the brightest young stars of New Zealand rugby, will offer an insight into their future prospects.

Sharks vs Cheetahs

In 2014, despite winning 11 of their 16 matches, the Sharks tackle success rate was the lowest of any team in the competition and they conceded more turnovers than any other team. The Cheetahs conceded a miserable average of 33 points and 3.7 tries per games last season, the worst in Super Rugby. Both teams need to improve drastically on those stats.

The Sharks have a new coaching set-up – again – with Gary Gold having taken over recently, after his return from Japan, as Director of Rugby from stand-in Brendan Venter, after the departure of Jake White. The Cheetahs head coach Naka Drotske is under severe pressure to produce vastly improved results or faces the axe at the end of the competition.

With Francois Steyn completing playing commitments in Japan and Paul Jordaan injured, the Sharks midfield is no more than mediocre at Super Rugby level and their back three do not instil fear in opponents. Their pack is fearsome though, and their halfbacks are superb.

Does anyone ever know what to expect from the Cheetahs? They’ve lost personnel and lack depth, but there are certainly more than a few skilful players in the line-up, and they have the licence to use their flair, to run opposition teams ragged.

You’d expect the Sharks to win handsomely, especially at home in Durban, but the Cheetahs won’t go down without a fight.

Key Players: Joe Pietersen gave years of great service to the Stormers at fullback before a sojourn at Biarritz. He does have the skill to switch to 10 and if he plays convincingly here, it will be a major fillip to the Cheetahs. Their attacking magician, with licence to allow his flair to flourish, is Willie le Roux.  New recruit Willie Britz can be a devastating ball-carrier. The Sharks will rely on their Springbok first-choice Test front row Tendai ‘Beast’ Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis and Jannie du Plessis and their rampaging flank Marcell Coetzee up front, and on the consummate skill and composure of Patrick Lambie to impose their game-plan.

The big match-ups: The front row battle will not be for the faint of heart, with Coenie Oosthuizen vs Beast Mtawarira, Danie Minnie up against Jannie du Plessis, and Torsten van Jaarsveld taking on Bismarck du Plessis. The Cheetahs will not stand back but it may be something of a battle for survival. The two number 9s, Sarel Pretorius and Cobus Reinach, are both darters and probers who can rip defence systems apart.


Bulls vs Stormers

Taking on the Bulls at Loftus Versfeld is an extraordinarily challenging assignment for any team, however strong or mediocre the Bulls are at any given time, and this year’s Bulls squad looks formidable.

Their forwards are invariably well drilled and offer fierce physicality, and with backline coach Pieter Rossouw – the former Springbok wing famous for his unpredictable, creative flair – wielding influence on the team’s approach, these Bulls could play more expansively than previous Bulls squads.

The Stormers have earned a reputation as tight on defence and decidedly ordinary on attack. With new Director of Rugby Gert Smal imposing on coaches and players the necessity for playing more creatively and giving licence to players to play with flair, the team’s approach will change, which will be a welcome relief to their faithful but frequently exasperated supporters.

The loss of the Stormers celebrated ‘warrior-king’ Jean de Villiers to long-term injury will be keenly felt, as will be the late return from Japan of Schalk Burger.

Victory over the Bulls in Pretoria would be a significant confidence-builder for the Stormers. Defeat at home would be a substantial setback for a Bulls team brimming with confidence. South African derbies are famously – or notoriously – physical, and they don’t come bigger than Stormers vs Bulls at Loftus.

Key Players: Victor Matfield is the world’s most secure winner of lineout ball on his team’s throw-in and there is no more astute competitor on opposition throw-ins. The Bulls two young backline superstars Handré Pollard and Jan Serfontein will test the Stormers defence. Francois Hougaard’s talents may well be wasted on the wing, but he is an incisive attacking factor whether playing at 11 or 9. Duane Vermeulen, new to the Stormers captaincy, has been a consistently outstanding player for the Stormers and Springboks, universally respected for one exceptional performance after another. With Jean de Villiers out for the entire competition, Damian de Allende becomes key to the Stormers attack. Michael Rhodes and Nic Groom are two of the most underrated players in SA.

The big match-ups: The number 5 locks: Victor Matfield vs Ruan Botha. The kickers for goal and for position, all the more important at altitude, where the ball travels a long way: Demetri Catrakilis vs Handré Pollard. How well will Super Rugby rookie, Stormers right wing Johnny Kotze, cope with defending against Bulls left wing Francois Hougaard?


Waratahs vs Force

Can the Force win an opening game of the season for the first time ever? Their improvement as a team last year spoke volumes for coach Michael Foley’s ability to turn fortunes around, but captain Matt Hodgson’s role in their greater success was invaluable, and having to cope without their talisman for the first half of the competition is a massive setback for the Force.

Halfbacks Sias Ebersohn and Alby Mathewson will be intent on directing play astutely and skilfully. Kyle Godwin having been moved from 12 to 13 adds skill wider, though whether it disrupts the key 9 10 12 combination too markedly is a moot point.

The defending champions look potent once again from number one through to 15, with the skill and nous and physicality to assure them a place among the favourites to win the competition. Dave Dennis’s return from injury adds experienced leadership to the team’s multiple assets.

The Force won matches last year against expectation and they are likely to do so again this year, but victory over the Waratahs in Sydney on Sunday is a tall order and it would come as the shock of the first round if they were to beat the champions at Allianz Stadium.

Key Players:  For the Waratahs: Israel Folau, because he is an attacking genius; Michael Hooper, out to show he is the best in the world as an openside flank, especially with David Pocock back from injury; Kurtley Beale, keen to put distracting drama behind him and prove his artistry can be consistent; and Nick Phipps – is he a better bet as starting 9 for the Wallabies than Nic White or Will Genia? For the Force: Sam Wykes as lock and stand-in skipper for Matt Hodgson, and Sias Ebersohn needs to show sceptics he has the skill and composure to control a game from 10. Can Kyle Godwin be as valuable to the Force at 13 as he has been at 12?

The big match-ups:Alby Mathewson vs Nick Phipps at 9 – these two have been around the block and neither will take a backward step. The 92kg Force left wing Marcel Brache will have a tough afternoon trying to contain 123kg Waratahs right wing Taqele Naiyaravoro, At outside centre, how will Kyle Godwin’s contribution compare with that of Adam Ashley-Cooper?