Super Rugby Round 5 Preview Part 1

We still have two unbeaten teams as we go into Round 5, with the Stormers having won four from four and the Hurricanes three from three. Only the Blues have not yet won a game.

The coaches most under pressure are Sir John Kirwan of the Blues and Richard Graham of the Reds – understandably so because their teams have underperformed. Notwithstanding the defence of these two coaches by players who have been interviewed by the media – since they have to protect their own future selections and contracts, players have little choice but to say that they support their coaches – Kirwan and Graham can surely not last too long in their roles if their teams do not turn their seasons around and start winning games.

Hurricanes v Blues

Jerome Kaino is out through injury, which exacerbates the Blues multiple problems, since he has played consistently well in a losing team, and they cannot afford to lose his ability as number eight or his leadership. Their worst ever start to a Super season could well continue on Friday.

The Hurricanes have never won their opening four Super fixtures, but have winning momentum now, despite the disruption of a Round 4 bye, and it will take a mammoth effort from the Blues to win in Palmerston North. 

Cory Jane is not available this week, but with Conrad Smith back, and Ma’a Nonu, Julian Savea and Beauden Barrett all fit and firing, they lack very little as a potent attacking backline.

Can the Blues pull off a shock victory? Not impossible, but it would come as the surprise of the weekend’s fixtures.

Key players: For the Blues: Ihaia West, who is responsible for the Blues having the best goal-kicking success rate in Super Rugby this season (89%); Luke Braid, who takes over the captaincy from Kaino, and has the unenviable task of cajoling his team into the standard of performance they haven’t appeared capable of delivering this year. For the Hurricanes: Beauden Barrett, a class act at 10, on early season form the leader in the All Black race to be first-choice backup to Dan Carter; Dane Coles, who has the primary responsibility to raise the Hurricanes lineout success rate from a mediocre 84%, and Matt Proctor, who has big boots to fill as he stands in for Cory Jane.

The big match-ups: A classic front row contest between All Black tight head Ben Franks (Hurricanes) and All Black loosehead Tony Woodcock (Blues). At outside centre, a clash between two of the All Blacks most skilful backs, Charles Piutau (Blues) and Conrad Smith (Hurricanes).Blues right wing Frank Halai up against Hurricanes left wing Julian Savea. 

Force v Rebels

This is a clash between teams appearing already to be competition also-rans. After a surprise win over the Waratahs in their opening fixture, the Force have lost three in a row. Their tackling, scrummaging, and goalkicking success rates are the worst in the competition, and they have conceded more tries on average than any other team. They’re in trouble and need a win desperately.

The Rebels scored a surprise win over the Crusaders in their opening match but then lost their next two. Among their problems is having had the least successful lineout in the competition. At least they’ve been competitive in games though, and they have the opportunity on Friday to win two consecutive away games for the first time since their founding.

Those who enjoy entertaining rugby with skill and flowing movement on display are unlikely to enjoy this encounter, which may resemble an arm wrestle as much as a rugby match. It’ll probably be tight but unspectacular, with little to excite the Perth crowd other than a Force victory – and Nick Cummins’s post-match interview.

Key players: For the Force: Nick Cummins on the left wing, their 5 lock, Steve Mafi, a standout player last week, and Kyle Godwin, who has begun to show that he could yet make an impact at 13 after his move from 12. For the Rebels: Scott Fuglistaller returns to the starting XV as openside flank, Luke Jones, a stalwart at age 23, earning his 50^th cap for the Rebels, and Laurie Weeks, who stabilises their scrum.

The big match-ups: The clash between two of Australia’s best number eights, Scott Higginbotham and Ben McCalman. A potentially pugnacious contest between the two scrumhalves/halfbacks Alby Mathewson and Nic Stirzaker. Rebels right wing Dom Shipperley vs Cummins.

Crusaders v Lions

Three of the best rugby players in the world, Dan Carter, Kieran Read, and Sam Whitelock all return to the Crusaders starting line-up, and if they are in the team to stay, it means the Crusaders revert to the status of title contenders again, despite their unhappy start to the season. Such is their ability and the confidence they bring to their teammates. Having Richie McCaw shift back from 6 to his openside flank position makes sense too.

The Crusaders home record against South African teams is superb. Since losing to the Lions in Christchurch in 2001, the Crusaders have won 34 out of 35 games at home against SA teams, losing only to the Sharks last season. But they have lost two of their three games this season, and need to capitalise on the return of their trio of superstars to up their game substantially.

The Lions lost three in a row before beating the bottom-of-the-log Blues last week. They have not won two consecutive games in New Zealand since 2001, and beating the Crusaders in Christchurch on Saturday would be a massive boost to their fortunes and confidence. It’s a tough assignment.

Key players: For the Lions, the front row comprising loosehead Corné Fourie, hooker Robbie Coetzee, and tighthead Julian Redelinghuys, who oppose the scrum with the highest success rate in Super Rugby this year. Lock Franco Mostert, a much improved player, not way off being a Springbok contender. For the Crusaders, it’s a no-brainer: Carter (at 12), Read, Whitelock, McCaw.

The big match-ups: Nemani Nadolo, the Fijian left wing, returning to Super Rugby, up against Lions right wing Ruan Combrinck. The experienced tighthead Ben Franks, returning from suspension, scrummaging against inexperienced loosehead Corné Fourie. At openside flank, McCaw vs Jaco Kriel.