Super Rugby Round 4 Preview

We still have four unbeaten teams as we go into Round 4. The log-leading Hurricanes have a bye, the Chiefs are at home against the Highlanders, the Stormers at home against the Sharks, and the Cheetahs host the Bulls. The only teams not to have won a game yet, the Lions and Blues, meet up in Johannesburg.

The Brumbies head the Australian conference and look set to retain a healthy lead. The Chiefs and Hurricanes are well ahead of the others in the New Zealand conference and with the Hurricanes not playing, the Chiefs should head up the standings after the weekend. The Stormers lead the South African log but if they lose, the SA standings could look very different at the end of the round.

With player TV interviews so often insipid, a highlight of the week could be the return to Super Rugby of the much loved Honey Badger, Force left wing Nick Cummins, who is the antithesis of boring.

Chiefs v Highlanders

Having beaten the Blues, Brumbies and Crusaders in successive weeks, the Chiefs now take on the Highlanders, who have lost to the Crusaders and beaten the Reds. You would be tempted to think the Chiefs should win at a canter, but the nature of this competition is such that teams are so tightly matched that there are no games to be approached in complacent frame of mind.

That having been said, you wouldn’t bet against the Chiefs winning again, especially since they are at home at the Waikato Stadium.

The Chiefs will be boosted by the return of Hosea Gear but will be without World Player of the Year Brodie Retallick (out for 4 to 6 weeks). The Highlanders pack has been overhauled, with five changes and one positional change, while Lima Sopoaga returns at 10.

Key players: For the Chiefs: Augustine Pulu deservedly retains his 9 jersey ahead of Brad Weber because he showed last week that he is sharper and less prone to error than Weber. Sonny Bill Williams, because he is Sonny Bill Williams – a magician. And Ben Tameifuna, who makes a weekly statement as scrummager and as driving ball-carrier. For the Highlanders: Tighthead Ma'afu Fia, making his first start of the season, number 8 and co-captain Nasi Manu, who leads a new-look pack of forwards, and scrumhalf/halfback Aaron Smith, around whom the Highlanders game revolves.

The big match-ups: The mouth-watering contest for spectators will be in midfield, between the Chiefs Charlie Ngatai and Sonny Bill Williams and Highlanders Malakai Fekitoa and Shaun Treeby – a match-up of exciting skill on either side. The openside flanks Elliot Dixon vs Sam Cane. And the impact off the bench of the two 10s, Marty Banks and Damian McKenzie.

Brumbies v Force

The Brumbies are a well-rounded team, playing intelligent rugby, conspicuously astutely coached. They thrashed the Reds, were decidedly unfortunate to lose to a penalty at the end against the Chiefs, and then beat the Rebels. The Force got away with delaying, spoiling rugby to beat the Waratahs, appeared uninspired in losing to the Reds, and then got smashed by the Hurricanes.

They’re in trouble if they don’t play more constructively and creatively – and also with clinical efficacy at basics. Among the specific problems for the Force are that after three rounds, they are the worst performing team in the categories of tackling success, winning their own scrum ball, and goalkicking. They are the second worst performing team in securing their own lineout ball. 

The Force showed in beating the Waratahs in Sydney that they can win against the odds, and must appreciate that they need victory on Friday to avoid a spiral of dismal defeats, but it’ll take a massive improvement in performance for them to beat the Brumbies in Canberra.

Key players: For the Brumbies, in the absence of David Pocock, openside flank Jarrad Butler, outstanding last week, and Sam Carter, who has won more lineouts than any other Super Rugby player in 2015. At outside centre, Tevita Kuridrani – always an attacking threat. For the Force: Nick Cummins is back, which adds wonderfully to the Force’s attacking flair as well as substantially to the usually deadly dull post-match TV interviews. Chris Alcock, returning from injury at openside flank. Kyle Godwin, so effective at inside centre last year, and up to now in 2015, ordinary at outside centre.

The big match-ups: The two feisty scrumhalves/halfbacks Alby Mathewson and Nic White. At 8, for the Brumbies Ita Vaea, back from life-threatening illness, and Ben McCalman, heroic in defeat so often for the Force. And the intriguing match-up between Brumbies right wing Henry Speight and Force left wing Nick Cummins.

Blues v Lions

The Blues and Lions have each played three, lost three, each losing the first two because they didn’t play well enough to win, and each desperately unlucky to lose last weekend. Both Blues and Lions did enough to deserve victory in Round 3 and will be as motivated to win on Saturday as they’ll ever be.

The Blues promise more than they deliver, which means coach Sir John Kirwan’s career could be on the line if there is not a vast improvement in performance, with a string of victories to follow. The Lions play enterprising rugby, creating opportunities and setting up try-scoring situations, but they fail to finish all too often. If they are not more clinical in finishing off opportunities, their season could descend into a sad chronicle of ‘what-ifs’.

We can expect a high-scoring game, as Blues vs Lions fixtures have seen an average aggregate score of over 57 points, 70 or more points being scored in three of their last four clashes.

Of note is that All Black hooker Keven Mealamu will establish a Super Rugby record when he plays his 163rd game, moving one cap ahead of Nathan Sharpe. 

Key players: Blues 10 Ihaia West – the most accurate goalkicker in the competition in the first three rounds. Blues captain Jerome Kaino – brilliant in defeat against the Cheetahs, and the catalyst for almost everything positive about this team. And lock Patrick Tuipulotu, who needs to show that he deserves to build on the seven All Black Test caps he earned as a 21-year old last year. For the Lions: Ross Cronje, who regains the 9 jersey he lost to Faf de Klerk last week, and who will want to show skills and fluency without making the errors De Klerk made. Elton Jantjies retains the 10 jersey – his goalkicking and decision-making could be the difference between winning and losing. Hooker Robbie Coetzee has the chief responsibility for raising the Lions disappointing 79% lineout success rate.

The big match-ups: At 8, the classy Jerome Kaino vs the ever-effective Warren Whiteley. Blues tighthead Charlie Faumuina vs Lions loosehead Corné Fourie. Lions leftwing Sampie Mastriet could have a tough afternoon defending against Blues right wing Frank Halai.

Reds v Waratahs

The Reds were smashed by the Brumbies, then beat a hapless-on-the-day Force, before losing to the Highlanders. The Waratahs lost to a clever-on-the-day Force before producing a less haphazard display and scoring a win over the Rebels, which would have delayed (but not entirely pushed aside) the wrath of coach Michael Cheika. Neither team would have been particularly happy with any of their performances so far in 2015, though, which means Saturday will be viewed by both teams as the opportunity to raise the standard of their performance and to gain meaningful momentum. 

The Reds showed improvement last week with James O’Connor’s return to Super Rugby and Will Genia raising his individual game, but they remain some way from being competition contenders. Stats often tell only a small part of the tale, but over the first three rounds, no team has averaged more conceded penalties than the Reds, and only the Cheetahs average fewer rucks won. The Waratahs average more carries, metres, breaks, defenders beaten and passes than any other team – in all these categories well ahead of the Reds.

Suncorp could see an intriguing contest. The Waratahs should win away, but they’ll need to be more convincing than up to now in 2015, or the home team may offer some cheer for their Brisbane crowd. 

Key players: For the Reds, so much depends on numbers 6 to 10 – Adam Thomson, Liam Gill, Jake Schatz, Will Genia, James O’Connor. If they’re on top of their game, the Reds will fire. For the Waratahs: With Adam Ashley-Cooper – class in every way – out, Matt Carraro needs to step up at outside centre. David Dennis – good captain, but how good a lock is he? Can Israel Folau and Kurtley Beale show more than glimpses of their wide range of skills?

The big match-ups: The openside flanks Michael Hooper vs Liam Gill, each so good at what he does. Will Genia vs Nick Phipps – who is the best 9 in Australia? Are either better than Nic White? At outside centre, two players returning to the big time: Ben Tapuai vs Matt Carraro.

Cheetahs v Bulls

The Cheetahs goaled a last-gasp penalty to score a fortunate win over the Blues last week, while Sharks supporters have been up in arms all week about calls by the referee and TMO which they allege played a role in the Bulls victory. The fact that that that referee and TMO are both members of the Bulls Referees Society has added to the acrimonious nature of the finger-pointing. That notwithstanding, the Bulls avoided three consecutive defeats at Loftus Versfeld by beating the Sharks, while the Cheetahs won their second consecutive game to stay unbeaten.

The Free State Stadium will see a ferocious contest on Saturday, with the usual derby fervour added to by the presence in the Bulls line-up of former Cheetahs skipper Adriaan Strauss and former Cheetahs blindside flank Lappies Labuschagne, who was becoming something of a folk hero in Bloemfontein.

The Cheetahs do not have the financial and player resources which many other teams enjoy, and struggle with a lack of depth in personnel, which means the losses to injury of Willie Britz and Lood de Jager constitute significant setbacks. 

The Bulls have won 12 of their last 13 contests against the Cheetahs, and may well extend that to 13 out of 14 on Saturday, but they’ll need to play well to earn the win against a Cheetahs team which, more than most, tries constantly to use possession skilfully.

Key players: For the Cheetahs: Joe Pietersen, who offers composure, sound decision-making, and accurate tactical and goal kicking, Willie le Roux, who, not surprisingly, is the competition leader in try-assists over the first three rounds. Springbok right wing Cornal Hendricks, a fine finisher. For the Bulls: Scrumhalf Rudy Paige, who needs to show he is a wiser selection than Piet van Zyl or François Hougaard. Jesse Kriel, an exceptional prospect as fullback, who could go this season from rookie to Springbok. Victor Matfield, approaching his 38^th birthday, ordinary in weeks one and two, and excellent in round three. Can he sustain that form?

The big match-ups: At five lock, François Uys vs Victor Matfield. At 10, Handré Pollard vs Joe Pietersen. Hookers Adriaan Strauss and his replacement at the Cheetahs, Torsten van Jaarsveld. At blindside flank, Lappies Labuschagne up against his replacement this week in the Cheetahs six jersey, Boom Prinsloo.

Stormers v Sharks

Luck can play a role in results, as do key refereeing and TMO decisions, and so far in 2015, the Stormers have enjoyed happier luck than the Sharks and have fared more positively in key officiating decisions. The Stormers are unbeaten after three games, while the Sharks have won only one out of three, but the standard of performance of the two teams has not differed markedly.

There is no obviously stronger pack of forwards and we are likely to see parity up front. Patrick Lambie and Demetri Catrakilis are two of the most accurate goalkickers in Super Rugby, and the key battle could be in midfield, where the Stormers have relied on powerful carries by Damian de Allende, while the Sharks have been no more than mediocre in the absence of François Steyn, Paul Jordaan, and JP Pietersen. With Steyn and Pietersen back this week, the Sharks midfield is hugely more potent.

If you find driving mauls from lineouts fascinating, you’ll enjoy watching two of the finest exponents of the art in this game. If you find driving mauls tedious, prepare for some tedium.

The Stormers are at home at Newlands, but both clashes between these teams in 2014 were won by the visitors, and there are unlikely to be many points separating them on Saturday.

Key players:Lambie and Catrakilis, obviously. The reunited Sharks midfield duo FransSteyn and JPPietersen. Bok flank Willem Alberts and Bok lock Eben Etzebeth, on their return from injury. Duane Vermeulen, a standout for the Stormers every week. SchalkBurger, back earlier this week from Japan and playing off the bench.

The big match-ups: Besides the goalkickers and midfield, Sharks hooker Bismarck du Plessis, the best in the world bar none, up against the Stormers Scarra Ntubeni, twice a Springbok tourist without actually playing – he’d like to be the Bok back-up to Du Plessis and Adriaan Strauss for the World Cup. The experienced former England and British and Irish Lions tighthead Matt Stevens scrummaging against Stormers loosehead Steven Kitshoff, who has been making a strong claim for recognition from Bok coach Heyneke Meyer. The number four locks Lubabalo ‘Giant’ Mtyanda vs Eben Etzebeth.