Super Rugby Round 8 Preview Part 1

First up on Friday we have the unbeaten Hurricanes playing the Stormers, who looked good in winning their first four games before losing their way somewhat and suffering two defeats. In the second match on Friday, the organised and motivated but often outgunned Rebels are at home to the Reds, who despite the return of a few of their stars, remain in a shambles. The first game on Saturday sees the Chiefs, who have won five from seven, against the Blues, who have lost six out of six, with no obvious indication of an upward curve in performance. If the Reds and Blues lose again, will coaches Richard Graham and Sir John Kirwan continue to survive the axe?

Hurricanes v Stormers

The Hurricanes have surprised friend and foe by remaining unbeaten through their first six fixtures, and on Friday will attempt to equal their Super Rugby best-ever seven wins in a row, which they achieved in 2003. The Stormers have lost their last four games in New Zealand, but they haven’t lost five in a row in NZ since 1998.

The Hurricanes use their strengths astutely, playing intelligently and skilfully and with enterprise, aided by mostly accurate decision-making. The Stormers, in contrast, after a promising first four games, have been all over the place in their last two, with inaccurate tactical kicking, players guilty of straying from their coaches’ game plan, costly unforced errors, at times weak defence (which has been admirably tight in recent years), and a too many turnovers conceded.

Both teams are stronger than last week’s matchday squad, with All Blacks Beauden Barrett, Julian Savea, and Ben Franks returning to the Hurricanes starting XV after their mandatory break, and Duane Vermeulen and Eben Etzebeth back in the starting line-up for the visitors.

Can the Stormers win in Wellington? If they play as they did in parts of their wins over the Bulls, Blues, and Sharks, they certainly can, but wiser decision-making, better kicking out of hand, and tighter defence will be prerequisites. It’ll take all that to beat the Hurricanes, who look the real deal under new coaches Chris Boyd and John Plumtree.

Key players: For the Stormers, Duane Vermeulen has to lead the charge, while Nic Groom and Demetri Catrakilis need to be more assertive and give clear direction to the Stormers gameplan. For the Hurricanes, Ma’a Nonu (playing his 150^th Super game) for both skill and physicality; Nehe Milner-Skudder has proven himself to be an exciting attacking talent at fullback in his rookie Super season, and Beauden Barrett has the job of setting alight the brilliant players outside him.

The big match-ups: The loose-forward battle will be fascinating with the underrated Hurricanes flanks Brad Shields and Callum Gibbins, and imposing number 8 Victor Vito, in a face-off with the consistently outstanding Vermeulen, and flanks Schalk Burger, playing as well as ever, and Siya Kolisi, who is regaining the form that made him a Springbok. Cory Jane will test Dillyn Leyds’s defence, while the Ben Franks vs Steven Kitshoff duel should be one for scrummaging aficionados to savour.

Rebels v Reds

What a pleasant surprise it would be were this Australian derby not to provide the least impressive standard of rugby of the Super weekend. How wonderful it would be if these teams – both struggling in unhappy seasons thus far – could raise their performances hugely and play to their potential.

The Rebels have lost their last seven in a row at home in Melbourne, believe it or not, while the Reds have won only one of their last nine away games. This year the Rebels have lost four of their six games but at least have been competitive in their defeats and appear organised and committed. The Reds have lost five of six, by big margins three times, while beating only the lowly Force. Despite getting some of their star players back last week, they lost to the Lions, who have no players strongly in the running for a Springbok starting XV.

One wouldn’t bet with confidence on either side to win because they’ve each in turn looked beaten teams for much of their 80 minutes most weeks. Do you go with the Rebels giving their AAMI Park spectators a treat by actually winning a game at home, or does one believe that with Quade Cooper and James O’Connor as attacking weapons the Reds must surely get their act together eventually and score tries and win games?

Laurie Weeks is injured but Lopeti Timani returns for the Rebels, while much interest will be on Karmichael Hunt, who is among the Reds reserves after his legal woes and rugby suspension.

Key players: Cooper at 10 and O’Connor at 11 because they are needed to spark the lacklustre Reds. Hunt when he gets on. Liam Gill, returning from suspension for weird, dangerous wrestle-throw of an opponent without the ball. For the Rebels, Paul Alo-Emile at tighthead, standing in for Weeks in his first start of the season, Timani, who brings a dynamism to their second row, and Sean McMahon who has been a standout as blindside flank every week.

The big match-ups: At blindside flank we have McMahon, an emerging 20 year old star who captained Australia under 20 last year before making his Wallaby test debut in November, up against wily 33 year old veteran Adam Thomson, who has 29 All Black test caps. Jack Debreczeni vs Cooper at 10; Tom English vs O’Connor on the wing; Gill vs Scott Fuglistaller at openside.

Chiefs v Blues

The Chiefs boast an eight-game winning streak against the Blues. The Blues have lost all six matches this year; against all opposition have now lost eight in a row and there is little indication that they are about to come right in raising their performance to turn their season around. It’s not as if they don’t have a decent squad of players – their problem is underachieving to a worrying degree.

The Chiefs have won five out of seven, losing only to a dubious last-gasp penalty to the Highlanders and then by a point in a shocker of a 13 vs 14 men game against the Sharks, where the Chiefs scored the only try. They could so easily have been unbeaten. They have the ball-handling skills and decision-making accuracy and attacking mindset to beat the Blues convincingly and to keep winning.

Tony Woodcock is out, which doesn’t help the stability of the Blues scrum, but they have NZ Sevens star Pita Ahki at outside centre, playing his first game in 2015 after his foot injury. Dan Bowden gets another opportunity to stake a claim to the 10 jersey, while Ihaia West will play off the bench, ahead of Simon Hickey this week.

The Chiefs have made a host of changes, the most significant of which are Brodie Retallick back at 5 lock after a shoulder injury, Augustine Pulu starting at 9, and James Lowe back at left wing. The depth of talent available to the Chiefs is evidenced by Hosea Gear, Jamie Mackintosh, and Seta Tamanivalu not being in the match 23 but playing for the Chiefs Development team.

Key players: For the Blues: Jamison Gibson-Park, who starts at 9 ahead of Jimmy Cowan. Can Ahki make a difference to the Blues backline? Can Jerome Kaino and Keven Mealamu rally this team and inspire them to far greater heights than they’ve produced in a miserable 2015 season? For the Chiefs: Retallick, back to bolster the tight five, Pulu, continuing his battle with Brad Weber for the 9 jersey, plus Sonny Bill Williams and Damian McKenzie, who rip defences to shreds each week. 

The big match-ups: Sonny Bill Williams vs George Moala at inside centre. At flyhalf/first-five Aaron Cruden and Dan Bowden, each of whom has a lot to prove. At number 8, Jerome Kaino, a shining light in a sadly underperforming Blues team vs the captain of Japan, Michael Leitch. At fullback, the accomplished Charles Piutau and a future All Black (at 10 or 15) Damian McKenzie.

·             Stats courtesy of Opta Sports