Super Rugby Round 5 Preview Part 2

The Stormers take a four from four record into Round 5, but they face a tough test against the Chiefs at Newlands. The South African derby this week sees the Sharks launching a major effort to salvage battered pride and get back on the winning track against the Cheetahs at Bloemfontein.

The Highlanders host the Waratahs at Forsyth Barr Stadium in what will be a decisive positive or negative momentum shifter for the winners and losers. After their Round 1 thrashing by the Brumbies, the Reds host the Canberra team in Brisbane. Calls for Reds coach Richard Graham to be replaced are growing, so much so that there is now speculation about Ewen McKenzie returning to rescue the Reds.  The Queenslanders are under considerable pressure to lift themselves out of the doldrums.

Highlanders v Waratahs

The Highlanders have lost two of their three games, but both narrowly; they have enjoyed little luck and could have won both. The Waratahs have won both matches since their miserable start to the season and in doing so have looked, albeit only at times, more like defending champions.

The Waratahs have not won away against the Highlanders since 2008 and it will take a big performance to win in Dunedin on Saturday. They appear the stronger team, but the Highlanders are capable of pulling off a win against supposedly stronger teams, and the 2014 Super Rugby champions won’t just coast to a win.

The return from hamstring injury of the Highlanders best openside flank Shane Christie boosts the home team, while Adam Ashley-Cooper's struggle to recover from knee injury is a concern for the visitors.

Key players: With Ashley-Cooper still out, Matt Carraro needs to step up again and show he is the Waratahs best stand-in outside centre. Halves Bernard Foley and Nick Phipps are pivotal decision-makers but for magic the Waratahs look to Israel Folau and Kurtley Beale.We all know that for the Highlanders, the class acts are Ben Smith and Aaron Smith, but their 13-12-11 combination of Malakai Fekitoa, Shaun Treeby, Patrick Osborne have been excellent, testing and stretching defences.

The big match-ups: Two of the world’s best fullbacks, Israel Folau vs Ben Smith. The two best attacking wings of Round 4, Patrick Osborne vs Peter Betham. At openside flank, Shane Christie vs Michael Hooper.

Reds v Brumbies

The Reds are in a bad place, having lost three of four games. Their coach is under siege. The players’ confidence cannot be high in an underperforming team. Their prospects for Wallaby selection are on a downward spiral. Having James O’Connor struggling with injury and Karmichael Hunt suspended, serves only to exacerbate a miserable scenario. From every point of view, the Reds need urgently to beat the Brumbies on Saturday.

The Brumbies have won three of four, their only defeat precipitated by a dubious refereeing call. They smashed the Reds 47-3 in Canberra in the season’s opening fixture. However, this week’s return game is likely to be a lot tighter than the first round’s six tries to nil.

The Reds have a dismal record of having won only one of their last six fixtures in Brisbane against Australian opposition, while the Brumbies have won seven, drawn one, and lost only one of their last nine games in Queensland.

One would expect the Brumbies to win again, but the Reds have their backs to the wall and need to win this game so badly that perhaps they will lift their game accordingly. 

Key players: For the Reds: Ben Tapuai, now at fullback. Nick Frisby – is he a Super Rugby standard flyhalf/five-eighth? James Horwill – back from injury and needed by the Reds to bolster a spluttering tight five. For the Brumbies: Jarrad Butler, so good as openside flank this season. Halves Matt Toomua and Nic White – their astute directors of operations.

The big match-ups: The openside and blindside flanks respectively: Reds Liam Gill and Adam Thomson (shining lights in an underperforming team) vs Brumbies Jarrad Butler and Scott Fardy. And in the tight contest for the Wallaby 9 jersey, Nic White vs Will Genia.

Stormers v Chiefs

Newlands could see the game of the weekend when the unbeaten Stormers host the Chiefs, who are unfortunate not to be unbeaten. On early season form, these are two of the strongest teams in the competition, setting the pace, though of course it is still early days.

We have the enticing contest of a home side which has conceded the fewest metres and clean breaks on average this season, against a visiting team which has scored more tries from inside their own half than any other team. As the competition’s most prolific off-loading team, the Chiefs play highly entertaining rugby and deserve more hospitable treatment than the Newlands spectators have offered visitors in recent years. Dare we hope that the vociferous booing of the Newlands crowd will be less boorish this week? Wishful thinking.

It should be tight, and goalkicking could determine the result. Here the home team have a decided advantage, with a success rate of a high 83%, in contrast to the visitors’ 68% - just not good enough at this level. Whether ‘rotating’ one of the most accurate goalkickers in world rugby, Demetri Catrakilis, to the bench this week is a wise move for the Stormers, is a moot point.

Among interesting selections for the Chiefs are Japan captain Michael Leitch making his Super Rugby debut at number eight, and 19 year old flyhalf/five-eighth sensation Damian McKenzie in the starting XV at fullback.

Key players: For the Stormers, their front row comprising Steven Kitshoff, Scarra Ntubeni, and Vincent Koch, who dominated the Sharks scrum last week. There will be huge pressure on Kurt Coleman to show that his goalkicking under pressure is as accurate as Catrakilis. For the Chiefs, Sonny Bill Williams is the key player, while Aaron Cruden needs to put last week’s shocker goalkicking performance behind him. Damian McKenzie has a chance to shown he can compete for the 15 jersey as well as the 10. Perhaps he should take over the goalkicking from the spray-gun boot of Cruden. 

The big match-ups: De Allende vs Williams at 12 – a match-up which could potentially be replayed later in 2015 in the Rugby Championship and at the World Cup. At 9, Brad Weber vs Louis Schreuder – each trying to show they deserve to be first-choice selections. In the front row, Ben Tameifuna vs Steven Kitshoff.

Cheetahs v Sharks

It would come as no surprise to anyone who watches the Cheetahs even occasionally that only the Brumbies have averaged more tries per game than the Cheetahs, but that the Cheetahs have conceded the most points per game of any team – a disturbing 30,7 points on average. It’s difficult to win consistently when giving away points so generously.

The Sharks have lost three games in four, including a home defeat to the Cheetahs, but the talent they have at their disposal is such that they must surely turn it all around soon and achieve a series of victories.

The Cheetahs have won three of their last four games against the Sharks, and the visitors will have another tough evening at the Free State Stadium on Saturday, but this could well be the week when the Sharks show what they are capable of, for the first time this season other than in the nigh unplayable conditions in Round 2 when they beat the Lions.

Key players: For the Cheetahs: Joe Pietersen’s boot, Sarel Pretorius’s sniping runs, Coenie Oosthuizen carrying the ball up. For the Sharks: Beast Mtawarira and Jannie du Plessis are back in the front row after their prop replacements took a pounding from the Stormers last week. Patrick Lambie has performed superbly four weeks in a row, despite his team losing three of those four games. Odwa Ndungane, after his nightmare moments last week.

The big match-ups: Coenie vs Beast – what a prospect that is for scrummaging aficionados. Sharks inside centre Francois Steyn vs anyone who gets in his way. Cheetahs captain Francois Uys up against the Springboks heir to Victor Matfield as number 5 lock, the brilliant young Pieter-Steph du Toit, the most prolific lineout jumper in Super Rugby thus far in 2015.