World Rugby Men's Rankings preview: 28-29 September, 2024

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for the final round of The Rugby Championship 2024 and other international matches in Europe, Africa and South America this weekend.

Permutation highlights:

• South Africa are unable to reclaim top spot in the rankings as victory over Argentina in Nelspruit will not have any impact on their rating due to the 7.47 points difference between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
• However, they also cannot fall from second place because New Zealand are also unable to improve their rating with victory over Australia. The All Blacks’ current rating is 9.38 points better than Australia’s before home weighting is factored in.
• However, defeat in the second Bledisloe Cup encounter will see the All Blacks drop one place to fourth with France the beneficiaries.
• It is possible for New Zealand to equal their all-time low of fifth if they lose and Argentina go back-to-back against South Africa, although only if one of the margins if by more than 15 points.
• Australia will jump two places to eighth if they avoid defeat against New Zealand in Wellington.
• Victory for Argentina will be enough to lift them above England into fifth place with France also overhauled if they win by more 15 points.
• Argentina could climb to third – for the first time since June 2008 – if they win by that margin and Australia beat New Zealand. This would equal their all-time high.
• Chile take a first step on a road they hope will take them all the way to Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 but victory over Paraguay will have no impact on their rating given the 14.07 points difference between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
• A draw would see Chile drop two places to 23rd with Canada and Hong Kong China the beneficiaries, and Paraguay jump three to 38th.
• Paraguay could climb as many as six places if they can upset their hosts.
• Moldova cannot improve their rating with victory over Turkey in their Rugby Europe Men’s Conference 2024-25 encounter due to the 10.35 points difference between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
• Turkey will climb one place to a new high of 87th with a draw, condemning Moldova to a three-place drop to their lowest-ever position of 63rd.
• Moldova will slide at least five places in defeat with Turkey potentially climbing as high as 80th depending on the margin and results in the Qualifier Sudaméricano 2025 Phase 1 matches in Colombia.
• Colombia’s 136-0 defeat of Costa Rica in their semi-final on Wednesday had no impact on their rating as a result of the 16.45 points difference between the teams before home weighting is factored in.
• The same will be true if they beat Venezuela in the Phase 1 final as their rating is 10.43 points better than their opponents before home weighting is taken into account.
• However, defeat to Venezuela on Sunday would see them drop at least six places to 42nd.
• A victorious Venezuela will climb at least nine places to 69th in this scenario, taking into account also their win over Peru on Wednesday. Even in defeat, they will still end the week in 74th.
• Peru can minimise the consequences of that loss by beating Costa Rica in the third place play-off, either ending the week down one place or where they began it in 80th depending on the margin of victory.
• Defeat will see Costa Rica drop up to six places to 99th, once place shy of their all-time low. However, victory will guarantee a new high with them becoming the higher-ranked of the two nations in 87th if they win by more than 15 points.

Match officials:

• Nika Amashukeli (Georgia) will take charge of New Zealand v Australia for the first time, having already refereed both teams in 2024 – the All Blacks' 16-15 win over England in Dunedin and Australia's 36-28 defeat of Wales in Melbourne. 
• Ben O'Keeffe (New Zealand) referees South Africa v Argentina for the second time, having been in the middle for the Springboks' 34-21 victory in Durban in 2018. South Africa have lost only one of 11 tests with the New Zealand official in the middle, while Los Pumas have lost five of seven matches.  
• Francisco González (Uruguay) takes charge of Chile v Paraguay for the first time since Los Condores ran out 97-0 winners in May 2018.