United Rugby Championship Play-Off Predictor - Round 14
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With five rounds left until the first United Rugby Championship’s Play-Off teams are confirmed, the URC StatMaster has released its latest probabilities which show that 12 teams are still in the hunt to reach the knock-out stages.
Finishing in the top four will guarantee a home Quarter-final so the contest for seeding will be a key storyline to follow in addition to who can make the top eight. With 55 games remaining there are 14 direct clashes between teams currently in the top eight of the URC table and so much will change each weekend based on results of these high-jeopardy games.
After each remaining round, the URC StatMaster will continue to predict the probabilities of each URC team reaching the Play-offs by running over 5,000 simulations of each remaining game, informed by their machine learning xP models that predict player and team performances. Once these simulations are complete they provide a probability % for a teams’ chances of reaching the Play-offs.
|
Current Standing |
Standing After Win |
Standing After Loss |
|
|
Emirates Lions |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Ospreys |
53% |
63% |
44% |
|
Munster |
>99% |
>99% |
>99% |
|
Benetton |
1% |
1% |
1% |
|
Zebre Parma |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Scarlets |
48% |
49% |
40% |
|
DHL Stormers |
43% |
58% |
39% |
|
Ulster |
>99% |
>99% |
>99% |
|
Cell C Sharks |
78% |
91% |
68% |
|
Edinburgh |
98% |
>99% |
97% |
|
Vodacom Bulls |
28% |
38% |
10% |
|
Dragons |
<1% |
<1% |
<1% |
|
Cardiff Rugby |
34% |
38% |
34% |
|
Glasgow Warriors |
>99% |
>99% |
>99% |
|
Connacht |
17% |
53% |
16% |
|
Leinster |
>99% |
>99% |
>99% |
Interesting Fact: If the DHL Stormers win, their probability of reaching the play-offs goes from 43% to 58% and Ulster’s probability will stay at <99%.
VIA: United Rugby Championship
