Super Rugby Round 3 Preview Part 2

Two of the teams playing on Saturday will be attempting to win their third consecutive game, with 11 of the 15 Super Rugby teams having already suffered at least one defeat in the first two rounds.

After winning their first two games the Chiefs and Stormers are early front-runners, with the Chiefs at home to the Crusaders, and the Stormers playing the Lions in Johannesburg.

The Rebels meet the Brumbies in Melbourne, while the Bulls face a possible third consecutive defeat in Pretoria when they take on the Sharks.

Chiefs v Crusaders

This could be the game of the weekend for spectator and TV value, a tight contest but with both teams playing highly entertaining rugby.

The Chiefs have beaten the Blues well and the Brumbies somewhat fortuitously, while the Crusaders were awful in their defeat to the Rebels and much improved in beating the Highlanders.

The Chiefs have lost 16 of their 25 Super Rugby match-ups with the Crusaders but have won four of the last six. This game should be close, with the losing team likely to earn a bonus point for losing by seven points or fewer.

Scrummaging will be important. In the opening two weeks, the Crusaders scrumming success rate is 100%, while the Chiefs are struggling at an unhappy 76%. But in contrast, the Chiefs stats show 20 clean line breaks to the Crusaders 11.

Will playing at Waikato Stadium help the Chiefs? This game is too tight to call with any conviction.

Key players: Sonny Bill Williams and Sam Cane return to the Chiefs line-up, at inside centre and openside flank, after missing last week’s game. Brad Weber was unconvincing at 9 last week and Augustine Pulu gets an opportunity to show he is the better bet for the starting team. Nepe Laulala starts at tighthead for the Crusaders, replacing Owen Franks (fortunate to be suspended for only two weeks). Colin Slade stands in for Dan Carter again after his excellent performance at 10 last week.

The big match-ups: Crusaders right wing Robbie Fruean vs Chiefs left wing James Lowe – two of the best attacking backs in rounds one and two. At 5 lock, Scott Barrett, a rising star in New Zealand rugby and one of the standout players in the Crusaders win over the Highlanders, faces the 2014 World Rugby Player of the Year, Brodie Retallick. In the front row Pauliasi Manu vs Nepe Laulala.

Rebels v Brumbies

The Rebels outperformed in week one to beat the Crusaders convincingly but then conceded 38 points in losing to the Waratahs. The Brumbies smashed the Reds in week one and then were desperately unlucky to lose to the Chiefs last week.

The Rebels play with great passion, and endeavour to play astutely to compensate for having a less generous player pool than many of their opponents, but it is the Brumbies who bring more attacking skill to the contest. The Rebels have the lowest tackle success rate in the competition over the opening two rounds and improving on this will be crucial to winning on Saturday.

There are no major changes to the teams’ line-ups, though Nic Stirzaker returns to the Rebels after a one-week suspension and Stephen Moore starts for the Brumbies. The loss to injury of David Pocock will continue to be keenly felt by the Brumbies.

The Brumbies would almost certainly have remained unbeaten had it not been for a judgment by referee Steve Walsh that what appeared a knock backwards in the line-out was a knock-on, at the end of their game against the Chiefs, and they will want to take home five points from Melbourne. However, this could be a closely fought contest at AAMI Park in Melbourne if the Rebels defence is tighter.

Key players: The Brumbies four outside backs are attacking kingpins: Robbie Coleman, Henry Speight, Tevita Kuridrani, and Joe Tomane.  Mike Harris’s accurate goalkicking is key to keeping the scoreboard ticking over for the Rebels. And Scott Higginbotham, always – because the Rebels are barely half the team without him.   

The big match-ups: At 4 lock, the rookie giant Rory Arnold vs Luke Jones, playing his 50^th Super game. At outside centre the potent attacker Tevita Kuridrani vs the well-travelled, experienced Tamati Ellison. And in a possible contest for the Wallaby 6 jersey later in the year, the established 30 year old Scott Fardy vs the exciting talent of 20 year old Sean McMahon.

Bulls v Sharks

Neither team has enjoyed the start expected of them, both by their supporters and within the respective camps.

The Bulls have been woeful. They lost to the Stormers at Loftus Versfeld, by reputation one of the most difficult stadiums in the rugby world for visiting teams, and then lost again at Loftus, to the Hurricanes, who travelled from Wellington to win both their games in South Africa at altitude. And it’s not as if the Bulls have played well and been unlucky. They’ve been way below the level of performance expected of them.

The Sharks had a shocker in round one, losing to the Cheetahs in Durban, but bounced back to give a masterful performance in horrible weather conditions, to score a convincing win over the Lions. Their repeated switching of head coaches since mid-2013 cannot have helped, but with the astute, composed Gary Gold now in charge, they should settle into performances which do them justice.

The Bulls pride themselves on doing the basics well, especially on the sanctity of their set piece ball, but their dismal 77% success rate in scrums and below par 84% in lineouts (disappointing for any team with Victor Matfield in the pack) belies this pride. The Sharks are still without their most effective centre combination, Frans Steyn and Paul Jordaan, and this is where they are least incisive on attack.

Losing three consecutive games at Loftus would draw heavy criticism from their supporters in Pretoria, and make life very tough indeed for coaches and players. The Sharks should win, but they do face a backlash from Bulls players desperate to regain lost pride.

Key players: For the Sharks: Halves Pat Lambie, whose decision-making and execution were brilliant in the torrential downpour last week, and Cobus Reinach, eager to gain recognition as the natural successor to Fourie du Preez as Springbok scrumhalf. Dale Chadwick, who stands in for the injured Beast Mtawarira. For the Bulls: Victor Matfield, who needs to show that, in his 16^th Super rugby season and as he approaches his 38^th birthday, he is still the best choice for the Springbok 5 jersey. François Hougaard, whose skills have been wasted on the wing, especially when the Bulls are struggling at scrumhalf. Jesse Kriel, an exciting talent at fullback.

The big match-ups: Is it unfair to call the 5 lock match-up between Victor Matfield and Pieter-Steph du Toit yesterday’s hero vs tomorrow’s superstar? The flyhalf contest between the two contenders for the Springbok 10 jersey: Pat Lambie, brilliant in tough conditions last Saturday, vs Handré Pollard, ordinary in the first two weeks in an underperforming Bulls team.

Lions v Stormers

The Lions beat the Stormers 34-10 in Johannesburg last February, but that has been the only victory for the Lions over the Stormers in their last 13 matches.

After two rounds, the Stormers have the better set piece success rate, with 100% for scrums and 89% in lineouts, while the Lions have a disappointing 79% for scrums and 81% in lineouts. The Stormers have won two from two matches, each without their opponents earning a losing bonus point, and the Lions have lost both their games.

But the Stormers were no better than sluggish against the Blues last Saturday after the visitors had Hayden Triggs sent off for punching in the 24^th minute, and the Lions, whose players have wider licence than South African coaches are wont to allow to play expansively and run at their opponents, remain a dangerous attacking team.

With Get Smal having taken over as Director of Rugby, the Stormers mindset has grown more accustomed to attacking creatively, and the hope is that this will lead to greater flair and more tries.

Key players: For the Lions: Can the new starting halfback pair Faf de Klerk and Elton Jantjies spark the attacking excitement that Ross Cronje and Marnitz Boshoff struggled to provide? Is the 21 year old Jaco van der Walt, on the bench this week, not perhaps the Lions potential catalyst and matchwinner at 10? For the Stormers: Demetri Catrakilis, because the Stormers rely on his goalkicking boot to keep the scoreboard moving. Duane Vermeulen – South Africa’s 2014 Player of the Year, was unlucky not to be named World Player of the Year, right now probably the single most influential player in any game in South Africa.

The big match-ups: The scrummaging battles will be intense: Lions tighthead Julian Redelinghuys vs Stormers loosehead Steven Kitshoff, and Lions loosehead Schalk van der Merwe vs Stormers tighthead Vincent Koch. At inside centre Harold Vorster, promoted ahead of Howard Mnisi, has a challenging match-up with the physically imposing Damian de Allende.