Super Rugby Round 10 Preview Part 1

This is a weekend where the likely winner of one game after another is too tight to call with conviction.

In the only Friday match, the Crusaders will want to bounce back from defeat to the Highlanders when they host the Chiefs, who come off a bye. First up on Saturday is another humdinger where the Waratahs – decidedly mediocre last week in losing to the Stormers – are in Wellington to play the Hurricanes.

Can the Blues win two in a row after their first win of the season? Beating the Highlanders in Dunedin will be tough. The Brumbies made a hash of their Round 9 game in going down to the Blues and face the hyped-up Rebels in Canberra.

Crusaders v Chiefs

The Crusaders have lost four out of eight, which is not good enough for so talented a group of players. Is coach Todd Blackadder really getting the best out of this team? Thus far in 2015, no more than intermittently at best. So good against the Sharks in Durban in Round 8, the Crusaders regressed to bland mediocrity in Round 9, with some players who will no doubt be brilliant for the All Blacks from July to October, making no more than a modest contribution to the Crusaders in the first eight games of their campaign.

The Chiefs performances have varied between excellent and ordinary, and they’d want to be more consistent in the second half of the competition. They try to use their possession creatively but doing so requires tight disciplines in handling and ball retention and decision-making.

Key players: Richie McCaw and Dan Carter are in the starting line-up and the Crusaders require a far more substantial contribution from these superstars of world rugby than they’ve offered the team up to now in 2015. Luke Romano is back to partner Sam Whitelock in the second row and this pair will want to bolster the tight-forward authority seldom present this season. For the Chiefs their three returning backs Sonny Bill Williams, Charlie Ngatai, and Tim Nanai-Williams are crucial to the team’s attack.

The big match-ups: Two obvious clashes: potent Sonny Bill vs the majestic Carter, and work ethic personified Sam Cane vs an at present subdued McCaw at openside. In the scrums, Crusaders loosehead Wyatt Crockett – popularly believed anywhere outside Canterbury to be an illegal scrummager – up against Chiefs tighthead Ben Tameifuna.

Hurricanes v Waratahs

The Hurricanes remain unbeaten with seven wins from seven, but on Saturday expect a backlash from the Waratahs, who were humbled by the Stormers. The Hurricanes have been the best-balanced, most effective team in the competition and deserve their top of the log position, achieved despite having played fewer games than most teams.

The Waratahs have rarely impressed as likely repeat champions, especially when being out-thought and out-played by the Stormers. They are a better team than this, as they showed against the Brumbies in Round 6, and need to show it.

Key players: The return of Adam Ashley-Cooper from injury adds experience, skill, and class to the Waratahs backline. Israel Folau is making an impact after a stop-start early campaign and Michael Hooper is brilliant every week. Kurtley Beale is too hot and cold to instil confidence. For the Hurricanes, Beauden Barrett’s goalkicking is crucial; he sometimes resembles a spray-gun rather than a precision rifle. Fullback Nehe Milner-Skudder, graduating from an unknown to a major name in Super Rugby.

The big match-ups: Folau vs Milner-Skudder at 15; Ashley-Cooper vs Conrad Smith at 13; Beale vs Ma’a Nonu at 12; Ben Franks vs Benn Robinson in the scrums.

Highlanders v Blues

The Blues were standout failures until last weekend’s win, but one swallow does not make a summer, and they have to show in a great hurry that they can win again. Sir John Kirwan owes captain Jerome Kaino – and winning goalkicker Ihaia West – a debt of gratitude for delaying his dismissal as Blues head coach. However, if the Blues do not keep winning, his firing will be inevitable.

The Highlanders play entertaining rugby, with the consummate artistry of Ben Smith and frequent touches of brilliance from Aaron Smith a joy for spectators and viewers. They’ve won five from seven and need to keep wining to chase the Hurricanes and Chiefs on the closely fought NZ conference.

Key players: Highly rated prospect, 19 years old All Blacks sevens star Akira Ioane makes his Blues debut at blindside flank. Captain Jerome Kaino – without him the Blues would be suffering an even more precarious plight. For the Highlanders: Lima Sopoaga, who set up the best try of Round 9; the exceptionally skilful Ben Smith; the consistently effective flank Elliot Dixon.

The big match-ups: At 13, Malakai Fekitoa vs Pita Ahki. At 15, Ben Smith vs Charles Piutau. At 9, Aaron Smith vs Jamison Gibson-Park, who is trying to hold on to the Blues 9 jersey ahead of Jimmy Cowan.

Brumbies v Rebels

The Rebels play with pride and a measure of passion and managed to beat the lowly Reds before their bye, but they remain Super Rugby also-rans. It’ll take more victories from the Rebels – as with the Force – to convince even the well-disposed that Australia does indeed have the player pool to justify fielding five Super franchises.

The Brumbies have looked so organised and efficient at times, and creative occasionally, but they underperformed miserably in losing to the beleaguered Blues. They remain top of the Australian conference ladder only because it’s the weakest conference of the three. Coach Stephen Larkham has made a host of selection changes and the new-look team will want to improve exponentially on last week’s ugly performance and beat the Rebels convincingly.

Key players: For the Rebels: Outside centre Tamati Ellison, earning his 100^th Super cap, and blindside Sean McMahon, a standout player in the competition. For the Brumbies: In a selection surprise, Michael Dowsett displaces Wallaby Test scrumhalf Nic White, giving Dowsett a massive opportunity. Christian Lealiifano, playing at 10. Nigel Ah Wong, a flank then outside centre, now playing inside centre.

The big match-ups: Dowsett vs Nic Stirzaker at 9. And the big clashes: David Pocock vs Scott Fuglistaller at openside, and Scott Fardy vs McMahon at blindside. Mitch Inman up against Ah Wong at 12.