Super Rugby Round 1 Preview Part 1

Part 1:

Super Rugby is back and excitement mounts, with round one starting on Friday after the annual months of speculation as to which teams have done well with acquisitions and which teams will suffer from losses in personnel.

Some coaches are more secure in their positions than others, whose jobs may be all too precariously poised, and with World Cup selection up for grabs there is more at stake for players than merely Super Rugby glory.

We have three games on Friday, three on Saturday, and one on Sunday, and by the end of 560 minutes of rugby, we’ll have a far better idea as to which teams will reap success from a good summer’s preparations, and we’ll be able to assess more accurately which teams are likely to enjoy success this season.

Crusaders vs Rebels

Read nothing into pre-season warmup fixtures. The Rebels scored two good wins and the Crusaders lost all three matches they played, but in reality Friday’s game is the first of the year of any real significance to either team.

Having lost the 2014 Super Rugby Final through a mea culpa error close to the final whistle by referee Craig Joubert, the Crusaders will be more motivated than ever to win the 2015 competition. The initial focus will be on a vast improvement on last year’s start, where they suffered three defeats in their first five games. No team with Dan Carter and Richie McCaw in their ranks is expected to lose more than rarely and this team, despite being without Sam Whitelock, Kieran Read and Israel Dagg this week, has the Crusaders usual combination of power up front and skill at the back.

The Rebels ended 15^th out of 15 teams last year, winning only four games out of 16, and have done little to dispel a belief that a fifth Super franchise does Australian rugby few favours. Winning possession is likely to be an ongoing problem, amongst others, for the Rebels.

However, it is not inconceivable that they will be more competitive this year. A win in Christchurch against the slow starting Crusaders is unlikely but not impossible. A surprise victory would prove a massive boost to Melbourne rugby.

That being said, you wouldn’t wager confidently against a convincing Crusaders win.

Key players: Richie McCaw and Dan Carter, as in every game they play. The return of Robbie Fruean from the Chiefs to the Crusaders could see him fulfil his potential. With Willi Heinz out for the season and Andy Ellis in Japan, the performance of Mitchell Drummond at 9 will be closely watched and carefully analysed. The Rebels fortunes will most likely revolve around Scott Higginbotham and Sean McMahon up front and the decision-making and boot of Mike Harris, making his Rebels debut at fullback.

The big match-ups: The obvious battle will be between two excellent loose-forward trios - Luke Whitelock, captain Matt Todd  and the consummate openside genius Richie McCaw for the Crusaders, and Scott Higginbotham, Colby Fainga’a and Sean McMahon for the Rebels. Jack Debreczeni vs Dan Carter gives the talented but inexperienced Rebels 10 the opportunity to show his ability while lining up against the best in world rugby.

Brumbies vs Reds

The Australian derby promises to be one of the most absorbing clashes of the weekend, as long as it doesn’t become a clash resembling a pedestrian chess match or dull arm-wrestle.

The Reds have Quade Cooper out for at least seven weeks, plus their much heralded acquisition, the sublimely skilful James O’Connor, and former All Black Adam Thompson delaying their debuts until next week. With seven debutants, the Reds will need to settle into a combination in a hurry. The impatiently anticipated performance of Karmichael Hunt at 10 will give an initial indication of his likely contribution to the Reds this year.

The return from injury of David Pocock is a major boost to the Brumbies. Stephen Moore starts on the bench but his return from injury also adds to the Brumbies formidability as serious play-off contenders.

You wouldn’t bet big money against the Reds scoring a surprise away win, but the more settled Brumbies selection, which includes six Wallaby backs, will take some beating in Canberra.

Key Players: Much will depend on the Reds halfback duo Karmichael Hunt and Will Genia. With so many rookies in the starting XV, the contribution of the experienced James Horwill, Saia Fainga’a and skipper James Slipper needs to be decisive. For the Brumbies, David Pocock is back. Will 2015 show that he is the premier openside flank in the world, ahead of Richie McCaw and Michael Hooper? The debut at lock of the 2.08m tall Rory Arnold will draw interest.

The big match-ups:  Look no further than the mouth-watering battle between the loose trios Jake Schatz, Liam Gill and Curtis Browning for the Reds and Jarrad Butler, David Pocock and Scott Fardy for the Brumbies. Debutant locks Rory Arnold and Marco Kotze will be out to show they can play at this level.

Lions vs Hurricanes

The Lions played excellent rugby for much of the 2014 Currie Cup before losing narrowly to Western Province in the final when Marnitz Boshoff, normally an accurate goalkicker, had a shocker of an afternoon with the boot. Resurgent under coach Johan Ackermann, the Lions play a more expansive, less predictable game than SANZAR rivals expect of SA teams, and are determined to surprise opponents with the pace and skill of their game. Alas, their player pool is limited and winning games at home and before injuries strike and their depth is tested, will be crucial to their season.

With the controversial four-year reign of Mark Hammett as head coach having been unceremoniously ended, the Chris Boyd – John Plumtree coaching duo will be on a mission to guide the Hurricanes to a play-off berth.

Ma’a Nonu and Jeremy Thrush are not available this weekend, but any backline boasting Cory Jane, Conrad Smith and Julian Savea outside Beauden Barrett will score tries if given sufficient possession. The result of the game is likely to be determined by how effective their forwards are.

The Hurricanes start as they did last year with three games outside NZ. In 2014 they lost all three games. They may appear the stronger team on paper but victory over the Lions in Johannesburg won’t come easily.

Key players: Conrad Smith is a class act, always. Give ball to Julian Savea and Cory Jane and they’ll run in tries. New recruit Jason Woodward could conceivably have a dream year, resulting in an All Black call-up. For the Lions, Marnitz Boshoff’s goalkicking, and the rampaging loose trio Warren Whiteley, Derick Minnie and Jaco Kriel are keys to success.

The big match-ups: The Lions rate the scrummaging of their front row very highly. Ruan Dreyer, Malcolm Marx, Schalk van der Merwe vs Jeffery Toomaga-Allen, Dan Coles, Ben Franks will be fascinating, particularly perhaps Van der Merwe vs Toomaga-Allen.