Super Rugby Round 7 Preview Part 2

The Stormers begin their four weeks in Australasia with a clash against the Highlanders in Dunedin, with both teams coming off a loss. The Waratahs, riding high after their best performance of the season, host the bottom-of-the-log Blues, who have lost every game. The Force, desperately unlucky to lose to a last-minute penalty goal against the Bulls after scoring three tries to one, are in Durban to face the Sharks, who suffered the indignity of playing with 13 men last week because of indiscipline. The Bulls play the Crusaders in Pretoria, knowing that another substandard display as in last week’s narrow escape, will lead to defeat this week.

Highlanders v Stormers

The Highlanders gave a good account of themselves in going down to the Hurricanes in Round 6, while the Stormers enjoyed a bye week after losing their unbeaten record to the Chiefs at Newlands in Round 5. The bye meant they could make the long journey from the south-west corner of South Africa to the south of New Zealand on Saturday, giving them an extra recovery day.

The Highlanders have lost their last six matches against the Stormers and if the Cape Town team play as they did in the first four rounds, this could extend to seven defeats. But two weeks ago the Chiefs ran the Stormers defence ragged in a second half display of width of attack, quick hands, slick passing, and support in numbers, and if the Highlanders can stretch the visitors’ defence similarly, the home team may well end up on top.

Key to the Stormers chances of winning will be the accuracy of their kicking out of hand, which was ineffective against the Chiefs. The Stormers scrummaging has been the most potent in Super Rugby in 2015, forcing the worst competition scrum success rate on their opponents (69%), and winning more scrums against the head than any other team. Key to the Highlanders will be their ability to counter this scrum power and ensuring they win their own ball and doing so without putting their scrumhalf/halfback under severe pressure.

Not all SA teams are comfortable travelling far from home, but the Stormers enjoy touring and are determined to regain the form of the opening four rounds. This could be a tight match, and if the skilful Highlanders backs get sufficient possession, a highly entertaining game.

Key players: With Duane Vermeulen on a Springbok rest break, the experience and acumen of Schalk Burger (at blindside flank in his 100^th game for the Stormers) becomes crucial. The props, Steven Kitshoff and Vincent Koch – the best scrummaging props thus far in the competition in 2015. Nic Groom and Demetri Catrakilis – especially in terms of the accuracy of their kicking game. For the Highlanders, James Lentjes, their fifth openside flank this season, making his Super debut; their back three Ben Smith, Waisake Naholo, and Patrick Osborne, who can rip defences apart ; and as always, Malakai Fekitoa for his attacking skill.

The big match-ups: In the front row, Kitshoff vs Josh Hohneck and Koch vs Brendon Edmonds. Can the Highlanders props cope better with the Stormers scrummaging than the Sharks and Chiefs managed? At outside centre, the red-hot Fekitoa up against Juan de Jongh, who has yet to make a substantial impact in 2015. Highlanders right wing Naholo vs Stormers left wing Dillyn Leyds.

Waratahs v Blues

The Blues have won three of their last four matches against the Waratahs but on the basis of the quality of their performances in 2015 – or rather, distinct lack of quality – not even their most optimistic supporter would wager confidently on them beating any other Super team right now. 

A win for the Blues over the Waratahs in Sydney on Saturday would represent a major turnaround for the Auckland team, and perhaps save the head coaching job of Sir John Kirwan, whose coaching reputation and position is hanging by the proverbial thread after losing five from five. Blues captain Jerome Kaino’s return from concussion helps their cause.

The Waratahs come off a triumphant, quality performance against the Brumbies, and have an unchanged starting XV. Adam Ashley-Cooper’s knee injury remains an issue but Matt Carraro has stepped up in his place, performing more than adequately, and coach Michael Cheika has not yet had the need to play Israel Folau at outside centre, which some believe may be his best position.

One must surely expect the Blues to do their utmost to outperform and score a shock victory, but unless the defending champions go into the encounter complacent and reverse the strong momentum they built up against the Brumbies, the home team should provide another winning display for their Allianz Stadium supporters. 

Key players: For the New South Wales team, fullback Israel Folau and right wing Taqele Naiyaravoro showed real skill and power last weekend, and look set to cause problems for the Blues defence as they did against the Brumbies. Is there a more effective openside flank in the world right now than Michael Hooper? He has been brilliant each week, in victory and defeat. Hooker Tolu Latu was a star against the Brumbies, and with Tatafu Polota-Nau back from injury and on the bench, he’ll want to show his considerable ability again. For the Blues, Kaino, as 8^th man and skipper. Dan Bowden returns after four years in Japan and the UK and the direction he provides at flyhalf/first five will be crucial. And Charles Piutau at fullback again after two games at outside centre.

The big match-ups: A clash between classy loose forwards – at openside Hooper vs Brendon O'Connor, and at 8 Kaino vs Wycliff Palu. How will Waratahs tighthead Sekope Kepu cope with Blues loosehead Tony Woodcock? At 9, the on-form Nick Phipps up against an up-to-now in 2015 ordinary Jimmy Cowan.

Sharks v Force

The Force, cleverly effective in beating the Waratahs in the opening round, have lost five in a row since then, but they scored three tries to one and deserved better than their cruel last-gasp loss to the Bulls last week. They played with greater energy and enterprise than the Bulls and a similar display at King’s Park against the disrupted Sharks could see them rewarded with a much needed win.

The Sharks will want to offer far tighter discipline after last week’s shocker against the Chiefs, where the composure and boot of Patrick Lambie and the courage of his 12 teammates secured as tight a victory as they’ll ever experience.

This has been a performance and emotional roller coaster season for the Sharks, with more disappointments than triumphs. They have a long way to go to re-establish themselves as serious tournament contenders. New Director of Rugby Gary Gold had to complete his commitments in Japan before taking over in Durban, and Sharks supporters will hope the composure and astute direction he will give the team will soon help them to overcome a turbulent February/March.

With Bismarck du Plessis suspended for four weeks and their matchwinning general Patrick Lambie on Springbok break, along with Cobus Reinach and Marcell Coetzee, it won’t be easy to up their game, but significantly lift their quality of performance they must, because another defeat puts them in a precarious position on the log.

Francois Steyn moves to 10 in place of Lambie, and with his hearing for a SANZAR appeal against his not guilty finding by the SANZAR Judicial Officer for his red card against the Chiefs postponed to next Tuesday, he is free to play against the Force.

In contrast to the Sharks turmoil, the Force have the same starting XV.

Key players: For the Sharks, Steyn as pivot and goalkicker, Jean Deysel, who stands in as captain in the absence of Du Plessis and Lambie, replacement scrumhalf Conrad Hoffmann, and replacement inside centre, André Esterhuizen. For the Force, lock Adam Coleman, who scored an impressive try against the Bulls but then gave away game-changing penalties, number 8 Ben McCalman, one of the most consistently excellent players in the competition, and Kyle Godwin who has taken with aplomb to the shift from 12 to 13 after a hesitant start.

The big match-ups: Hoffmann vs Alby Mathewson at 9, Tetera Faulkner vs Beast Mtawarira in the front row, Esterhuizen vs Luke Burton at 12, and on the wing the exciting Nick Cummins vs Odwa Ndungane, now 34 and looking significantly less sharp than earlier in his career.

Bulls v Crusaders

No-one knows better than the Bulls players and coaches that they were fortunate indeed to smuggle a win against the Force last week through a last-minute Handré Pollard penalty goal after an unenergetic, inaccurate display from pretty much every player other than Pollard. The Bulls appreciate too that they’ve delivered three performances this season way below their best and only two with which they will have been satisfied.

They know that on Saturday against the Crusaders they will be punished if they do not defend better and execute more accurately – indeed in almost every way lift their quality of what they are producing.

The Crusaders have been up and down too, winning three from five after losing two of their first three, but the number of tries they’ve scored and the points they’ve piled on the Lions and Cheetahs in the last fortnight, are indications that they have their mojo back. A few of the tries in the last two weeks have come from vintage Crusaders rugby and they’ll try to stretch the Bulls defence as they did so successfully to the Lions and Cheetahs.

The home team need to do more than rely on Pollard’s boot to steer them to victory, while the visitors need to play with the flair of games four and five and not the mediocrity of their Highlanders game or the drab displays they gave against the Rebels and Chiefs.

There is extra excitement for the Loftus Versfeld crowd in the prospect of seeing Dan Carter at 10, to where he moves from 12, and Richie McCaw back in the starting line-up.

Key players: For the Bulls, Handré Pollard, because for much of the season they’ve looked lost without his boot keeping them in games and winning games for them. Pierre Spies, who needs to lift his game exponentially if he is to earn a Springbok comeback. Jan Serfontein – the brilliant young centre has shown only glimpses of his class this year. For the Crusaders, Carter at 10, McCaw at 7, Israel Dagg at 15 – he showed some of his old magic last week.

The big match-ups: The big clashes – at 5 lock, Springbok supremo Victor Matfield vs All Black maestro Sam Whitelock, and at 10, the consummate artistry of the best in the world, 33 year old Carter vs the burgeoning talent of 21 year old Pollard. Hookers Ben Funnell and Adriaan Strauss.

*     Stats courtesy of Opta Sports