A look at the final URC round
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The final round of the United Rugby Championship is upon us, and the race for top 8 has officially gone down to the wire. Who will make it to the play-offs? Who will enjoy homeground advantage? Here is what each team will
Leinster v Connacht
Match-up Insight
- Depending on the results of Round 18, Connacht’s playoff probability could still have a 22% chance of making the playoffs.
Leinster
- 28% carry dominance: when Leinster have won this season, they’ve had the highest rate of carry dominance in the league (28.1%).
Connacht
- 45% gainline success: Connacht have has the lowest gainline success rate in the last two rounds. When they\ve won this season, their gainline success rate has been 43.4%.
Glasgow Warriors v Zebre Parma
Match-up Insight
- Glasgow Warriors have made more clean breaks this season than any other team, an average of 9.5 per 80 minutes. In contrast, Zebre have made the fewest in the league (4.4 per 80).
Glasgow Warriors
- Make 130 carries: when they’ve won this season, the Warriors have averaged more carries per 80 minutes than any other team (130).
Zebre Parma
- Miss fewer than 23 tackles: when Zebre have lost this season, they have missed a league-high average of 23.8 tackles per 80 minutes.
DHL Stormers v Emirates Lions
Match-up Insight
- The Lions’ playoff jeopardy this weekend is the highest of the season (85%). If they win, they will take the playoff place of whoever loses Benetton v Edinburgh.
DHL Stormers
- Win four scrum penalties: the Stormers have won an average of four scrum penalties per match when they’ve won this season compared to 2.5 in those they’ve lost.
Emirates Lions
- Make 11 clean breaks: when the Lions win, they average more than double the number of clean breaks per 80 minutes (10.7 compared to 5.0).
Benetton v Edinburgh
Match-up Insight
- These teams have jeopardy of 49% and 40% respectively. Whoever loses could forfeit their place in the playoffs.
Benetton
- Win seven turnovers: Benetton won the fewest turnovers in Round 17 (three). They have won an average of 7.2 per 80 minutes in matches they’ve won this season.
Edinburgh
- Make 400 carry metres: Edinburgh made fewer carry metres in Round 17 than they have in any other match this season (191). They have made an average of 403 per 80 minutes when they’ve won.
Scarlets v Dragons
Match-up Insight
- These two teams have scored the fewest tries this season: 33 and 34 respectively. The Dragons’ goalkicking success rate (85.2%) is better than the Scarlets’ (77%).
Scarlets
- 4 second ruck speed: the Scarlets had the slowest average ruck speed in Round 17 (six seconds). The average for teams who have beaten the Dragons this season is 4.2 seconds.
Dragons
- Concede fewer than nine penalties: the Dragons set a season record for penalties conceded in Round 17 (20). They have conceded an average of 8.3 in matches they’ve won this season.
Hollywoodbets Sharks v Vodacom Bulls
Match-up Insight
- These two teams have averaged the third-most (6.7) and most (7.9) contestable kicks per 80 minutes this season.
Hollywoodbets Sharks
- Make nine clean breaks: the Sharks made just one clean break in Round 17, but have averaged nine per 80 minutes in matches they’ve won this season.
Vodacom Bulls
- Score six tries: when the Bulls have won this season, they have scored a league-high average of 5.75 tries per 80 minutes compared to 2.4 when they’ve lost.
Munster v Ulster
Match-up Insight
- Ulster are currently top of the Irish shield. If they win this weekend, they will remain top. Otherwise, there is just a 28% chance.
Munster
- Score three points per entry: Munster have scored an average of 2.8 points per 22 entry when they’ve won this season compared to 1.3 when they’ve lost.
Ulster
- Make 130 post-contact metres: Ulster have averaged the second-most post-contact metres when they’ve won this season (129 per 80 minutes) – 25% more than when they’ve lost.
Cardiff Rugby v Ospreys
Match-up Insight
- The Ospreys still have an outside chance of playoff qualification (5%). This could rise to 12% if they win.
Cardiff Rugby
- Win ten turnovers: when Cardiff have won this season, they have won a league-high average of 9.75 turnovers per 80 minutes.
Ospreys
- Make 11 22 entries: the Ospreys have made an average of 11 entries to the opposition 22 per 80 minutes in matches they’ve won this season compared to 7.1 in those they’ve lost.
