World Rugby Rankings preview

World Rugby published the ranking permutations for the second round of the Pacific Nations Cup 2024 and third round of The Rugby Championship 2024 this weekend.

Permutation highlights:

• In all four matches this weekend the away team will overtake their opponents in the rankings if they win by more than 15 points.
• First up, New Zealand have an opportunity to move above South Africa if they go to Johannesburg and do a number on the world champions.
• However, a win by the required margin of more than 15 points would not result in Scott Robertson’s men going top, that honour would fall to Ireland instead, with the All Blacks moving up to second and the Springboks falling to third.
• A smaller margin of defeat would still be enough for South Africa to surrender top spot to Ireland with New Zealand remaining third.
• South Africa, meanwhile, can increase their advantage over Ireland at the top of the rankings by up to 0.39 points – to 1.38 – if they win by more than 15 points.
• Australia, the only side without a win in The Rugby Championship 2024, can leapfrog Argentina in the rankings if they come away from Buenos Aires with a big win.
• The Wallabies will gain two places if they win by more than 15 points and move up to seventh, above both Argentina and Italy. Los Pumas would fall to eighth in this eventuality with Scotland replacing them in sixth.
• A smaller margin of victory would still lift the Wallabies above Italy into eighth.
• Argentina cannot improve on sixth place this weekend as England have too big a cushion above them to be caught. A win by more than 15 points would still leave Los Pumas 1.7 rating points shy of England.
• Samoa cannot move up the rankings this weekend regardless of the outcome of their Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup 2024 encounter with Tonga in Apia, while in the other second round match, USA need to win by more than 15 points to replace Spain in 18th.
• However, two away wins would lead to a big turnaround in fortunes.
• A Tonga win by the requisite margin would send the ‘Ikale Tahi up to 14th and demote Samoa three places to 16th.
• A smaller margin of victory would not be enough for Tonga to improve their position, but it would still lead to Samoa being replaced in 13th by Japan.
• It’s been more than a decade since Canada beat the Men’s Eagles in the USA but if they can end that long wait in emphatic style, they will become North America’s highest-ranked team for the first time since June 2016.
• A smaller margin of victory would still be enough to lift Canada above Romania into the top 20, a position they have not occupied since February 2019.
• Another defeat on American soil would lead to Canada dropping below Chile into 22nd.

Match officials:

• Andrew Brace (Ireland) will take charge of South Africa v New Zealand for the first time with the All Blacks yet to lose with the Irish official in the middle.
• James Doleman (New Zealand) will referee Australia for the second time this year when they take on Argentina in The Rugby Championship, having overseen their 40-29 victory over Georgia in July. 
• Takehito Namekawa (Japan) will take charge of Samoa and Tonga for the first time in a test, his first time in the middle since taking charge of the World Rugby U20 Championship 2024 final in July.
• Gianluca Gnecchi (Italy) will referee USA and Canada for the first time in the other Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup this weekend. The Italian returns to test rugby after refereeing at the Olympic Games Paris 2024.