Super Rugby Round 9 Preview Part 1

Yes, in Super Rugby any team can beat any other team because there is not that huge a difference in the talent each team has in its ranks, and yes, refereeing inaccuracy and inconsistency and guessing are again all major issues affecting results, but the opening and losing games of Round 9 are the matches where you’d predict a winner most confidently, while the other four games appear 50-50 encounters.

The hapless Blues play the Brumbies in the only Friday fixture, and the beleaguered Reds face the Bulls in the late Saturday game. Wouldn’t it be a massive boost to the Blues and Reds seasons if they were to shock their opponents and surprise their supporters and actually win? They most assuredly have the talent to do so, but they need to show they have the will and commitment to execute a game-plan – if indeed there is clear game strategy in the shambles we’ve been witnessing week after week.

In the two early games on Saturday, the Crusaders host the Highlanders and the Waratahs are at home to the Stormers, with both games expected to be tight clashes where you may be tempted to make the home teams favourites, but without much confidence in those predictions.

The Chiefs, Hurricanes, and Rebels are on a bye week.

Blues v Brumbies

The Brumbies have 24 log points, for much of the season looking serious title contenders, while the Blues have lost seven from seven, earning a mere five log bonus points. Going back to the end of 2014, the Blues have lost nine in a row.

Look at the Brumbies line-up and you’d believe the players are performing to potential and are being astutely coached. Look at the Blues line-up and you’ll wonder how so many talented rugby players can produce so little as a team – and the obvious question is how effective their coaching is. But the Blues are back at Eden Park and perhaps this is the week they will finally get their act together and play at the level their talent justifies. To say the players are under pressure and coach Sir John Kirwan under siege is an understatement.

The Brumbies, in contrast, are certainly well coached and prepared and play to a tactical plan they believe in and try to execute accurately. Unless the Brumbies have a bad off-day, or the Blues at long last turn in a grossly overdue performance which justifies their talents, the Brumbies should win.

Key players: For the Blues: Charles Piutau and Jerome Kaino, because they are the class acts in the line-up who need to rally the troops and lift the team performance. Jamison Gibson-Park has another opportunity to start at 9 and to show he deserves selection ahead of Jimmy Cowan (dropped to the bench last week; on paternity leave this week). Frank Halai, Pita Ahki, and Melani Nanai need to set up and score more tries. For the Brumbies: Henry Speight, revelling last week in his move from wing to outside centre. Flanks David Pocock and Scott Fardy – lethal individually and as a duo. Lock Sam Carter, not always given the plaudits he deserves. Scott Sio, a much improved loosehead.

The big match-ups: Can Dan Bowden spark the Blues backline attack from 10 as Matt Toomua does for the Brumbies? Blues loosehead Ofa Tu'ungafasi vs Brumbies experienced Wallaby tighthead Ben Alexander. Openside Pocock and blindside Fardy vs two openside flanks in Brendon O'Connor and Luke Braid.

Crusaders v Highlanders

The Crusaders have 19 log points from 7 games and the Highlanders 20 points from 6, and while a Crusaders win in Christchurch will reverse their positions on the ladder, both of these teams have shown enough skill and ability to execute to indicate that they could make it through to the play-offs.

The Crusaders have lost three games and the Highlanders two, with each team performing superbly at times in between those defeats, so it is consistency they seek.

The visitors come off a bye and the home team off a thrashing of the Sharks in Durban, despite having three players yellow-carded at one stage. Their skills and continuity were brilliant but their indiscipline, especially in terms of dangerous tackles, is a concern. While the 10-minute banishment of one player for kicking the ball away may have been harsh, the Crusaders were fortunate to escape a fourth yellow card for another late, dangerous tackle. They could so easily have had only 11 players left on the field for a few minutes.

The Highlanders thumping of the Stormers in their last fixture will have earned them new respect from the Crusaders. They have lost their last six games to the Crusaders but that means nothing on Saturday.

With both teams keen to play with ball-playing skill rather than bashing into opponents as a primary form of attack, for entertainment value this could be the game of the weekend.

Key players: Andy Ellis and Colin Slade orchestrated the Crusaders demolition of the Sharks last weekend and their performances at 9 and 10 will again be decisive. Dan Carter and Richie McCaw will play off the bench. David Havili (right wing) and Jimmy Tupou (4 lock) will want to show they’re the best choices in their positions. Jordan Taufua has been excellent at blindside and could just squeeze into All Black World Cup selection. For the Blues, the usual threats to defence – Ben Smith, Aaron Smith, and Malakai Fekitoa, plus their two potent but underused wings Patrick Osborne and Waisake Naholo. Up front their flanks, Elliot Dixon, who makes a major contribution every week, and promising rookie James Lentjes.

The big match-ups: The two scrumhalves/halfbacks, Ellis and Smith, both likely to play an important role in the All Blacks World Cup campaign. Fullbacks Israel Dagg and Ben Smith. Owen Franks, in his 100^th game for the Crusaders, scrummaging against Brendon Edmonds, a highly rated young loosehead but still learning his trade at Super level.

Waratahs v Stormers

This could be a fiercely fought encounter, with the Waratahs on a mission to march on to a defence of their 2014 competition championship after an initially stop-start campaign, and the Stormers coming off three defeats after winning their first four in a row. The will be feeling much aggrieved at the officiating in their defeat to the Hurricanes last week, and after losing both games in New Zealand, are determined to win both in Australia.

The Waratahs can be aggressively belligerent, as they showed against the Brumbies, and if they behave similarly against the Stormers, who will be hyped up to avoid a third defeat on the trot, referee Mike Fraser could have a tough evening.

The return to Cape Town of captain and kingpin Duane Vermeulen on Springbok rest break, is a substantial setback for the visitors, in terms of leadership as well as the contribution he makes as an eighth man. Positive news for the Waratahs is the return from injury of Adam Ashley-Cooper and Tatafu Polota-Nau, who are among the reserves.

The Waratahs have won 12 of their last 13 games at home, and will be favourites here again, but a surprise win for the visitors is not out of the question at all – if they can tighten up their once-secure but less tight of late defence, plus create more on attack and then finish those attacking movements.

Key players: For the Waratahs, Bernard Foley and Nick Phipps for their astute control of the team game-plan; Israel Folau, because he defies defence patterns; Tolu Latu and Tatafu Polota-Nau, whose lineout throw-ins need to be spot-on accurate. For the Stormers: Halves Demetri Catrakilis and Nic Groom will want to be sharper and more decisive and a greater threat, and the backs outside Damian de Allende have to worry the opposition far more – it is really just De Allende causing defensive havoc. Loosehead Steven Kitshoff, who will be rewarded with Springbok recognition this year if he continues to scrummage as he has been doing, and Springbok tighthead Frans Malherbe, in his first start of the year.

The big match-ups: Waratahs right wing Taqele Naiyaravoro vs Stormers left wing Dillyn Leyds. And at some stage Cheslin Kolbe will have to tackle Naiyaravoro as well. Every Stormers defender vs Israel Folau. At openside, the consistently brilliant Michael Hooper vs still ferocious, still effective Schalk Burger. In the scrums, Kitshoff up against Sekope Kepu and Malherbe vs Benn Robinson.