Super Rugby - Play Off Preview

Super Rugby’s conference system means that it is not the top six teams on merit who contest the play-offs. Log points accumulated in each team’s 16 regular season games are not decisive, as the SANZAR conference system log takes precedence. Thus even though the Highlanders have the second highest log points, they do not go straight through to a semi-final but are allocated fourth position and have to play a qualifier. They play against the Chiefs who are fourth in terms of points accumulated but fifth on the log. In the other qualifier, the Brumbies (fifth on a merit log, but sixth on the one that counts) travel from Canberra to Cape Town to play the Stormers (seventh on a merit list but third on the official log).

Highlanders vs Chiefs

The Highlanders beat the Chiefs 20-17 on 6 March and 36-9 on 30 May, but that counts for nothing going into Saturday’s qualifier, with a tight contest expected, quite possibly going down to the wire. These are two of the most enterprising, creative teams in the competition, each team boasting a plethora of players of skill and flair, and this game is likely to provide, by some way, the more entertaining contest of the two qualifiers – in comparison with the less adventurous, more predictable Stormers and Brumbies.

The Highlanders have scored 54 tries in their 16 games and the Chiefs 40, but the Chiefs have conceded only 27 tries while 40 have been scored against the Highlanders. Since the total tries for and against is 14 more for one team and 13 more for the other, that statistic doesn’t point us towards a likely winner. Let’s hope the result isn’t determined by a penalty awarded by yet another referee’s guess at a scrum, or by yet another dubious TMO decision.

Key players:
For the Chiefs, Andrew Horrell at 10, a fascinating pivot selection ahead of Marty McKenzie and Damian McKenzie, and Michael Fitzgerald at blindside, with Michael Leitch demoted to the bench. Plus Damian McKenzie at 15, Sonny Bill Williams, Brodie Retallick, and Liam Messam. For the Highlanders, their three brilliant All Black backs Ben Smith, Aaron Smith, and Malakai Fekitoa, and their potent attacking wings, Waisake Naholo and Patrick Osborne. Plus co-captain Nasi Manu, back at 8 after his injury.

The big match-ups:
Retallick vs Mark Reddish at 5, Sonny Bill vs Richard Buckman and Fekitoa vs Tim Nanai-Williams in midfield, Naholo vs James Lowe on the wing, and with John Hardie injured Dan Pryor is at openside this week, up against Sam Cane.

Stormers vs Brumbies

The Stormers have scored 32 tries in their 16 games while conceding 35. The Brumbies have scored 45 tries, conceding 21. But two crucially important things the Stormers have going for them are their opponents having had long, draining flights from Canberra to Cape Town, and having Super Rugby’s most accurate goalkicker in their ranks. Demetri Catrkilis takes indiscriminate flak,  accused repeatedly of not posing a threat to opposition defences with ball in hand, but he has won more than a few games for Western Province and the Stormers with his lethal boot, and his composure under pressure and accuracy could be decisive again.

When these teams met on 9 May, the Stormers won 25-24 courtesy of a conversion kick in front of the posts by Christian Lealiifano that hit an upright after what looked to be a winning try by the Brumbies. The Brumbies conceded a mass of penalties in that game, with the Storners conceding very few, and the result of this qualifier may well depend on how many or how few penalty kicks at goal the Brumbies give Catrakilis.

Key players:
For the Brumbies, iconic openside David Pocock (if he continues to pass daily concussion tests), halves Lealiifano and Nic White, Matt Toomua off the bench at 10 or 12, and wing Henry Speight on attack. For the Stormers, Catrakilis for his boot, Damian de Allende as an attacking pressure point, Eben Etzebeth approaching his best form at lock, and the most potent scrummaging props in Super Rugby 2015, Steven Kitshoff and Frans Malherbe.

The big match-ups:
Kitshoff vs Ben Alexander and Malherbe vs Scott Sio. The line-out throwing-in of Stephen Moore vs Bongi Mbonambi. How well will Robbie Coleman cope with De Allende at inside centre? Goalkicking: Catrakilis vs Lealiifano.