World Rugby Men's Rankings preview: All Blacks could fall to third with the Springboks taking #1

World Rugby has published the ranking permutations for matches in The Rugby Championship 2025, the Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup 2025 and Sudaméricano 2025 this weekend. 

Permutation highlights:

• South Africa will return to top spot if they avoid defeat against New Zealand at Eden Park
• only need to draw with New Zealand at Eden Park.
• A draw at New Zealand’s citadel – something they last achieved in 1994 – would put the Springboks 0.03 rating points ahead of New Zealand, who are defending a 50-test unbeaten record at the iconic venue.
• A South African win will see the All Blacks drop two places to third with Ireland climbing to above them into second.
• Defeat for South Africa will see them drop back to third, swapping place again with Ireland.
• It could also give New Zealand a 1.83 point advantage over Ireland at the top if the All Blacks win by more than 15 points.
• In the earlier of the two Rugby Championship kick-offs on Saturday, Argentina take on Australia knowing that they will become the higher-ranked of the two sides if they come away from Townsville with a win.
• The Wallabies cannot improve on sixth place – and what would be a place in band one for the Men’s Rugby World Cup 2027 draw in December – with a win because England are too far ahead to be caught this weekend.
• Los Pumas will retain seventh place even in defeat.
• Neither of the higher-ranked teams in the Asahi Super Dry Pacific Nations Cup 2025 – Fiji and Japan – can improve their position with victories over Samoa and USA respectively.
• The same applies to Uruguay, who take a 12-point lead into the second leg of their Sudaméricano 2025 final against Chile in Montevideo. However, an aggregate win will secure RWC 2027 qualification for Los Teros.
• USA will move above Tonga into 17th if they beat Japan on home soil and all the other results go according to the formbook. However, defeat will see them drop below Portugal.
• A shock win for Samoa over Fiji in New Zealand will be rewarded with a one-place gain, replacing Japan in 13th, if the margin of victory is more than 15 points.
• A narrower margin of victory will be sufficient if Japan fail to win.
• Chile can reach a new high of 19th but only if they win by more than 15 points, a margin that would be enough to qualify for RWC 2027. They could go to 18th if USA lose by the same margin in Sacramento.
• A heavy defeat could see Uruguay plummet four places to 20th, with Chile becoming the higher ranked of the two nations for the first time by just 0.01 points.