Super Rugby Round 6 Preview Part 2

Can the Force come back firing after losing four in a row to pull off a shock win at Loftus Versfeld? Will the Chiefs – without Sonny Bill Williams this week – win two consecutive games in South Africa by beating the Sharks at Kings Park after beating the Stormers at Newlands? And after losing 8 of their last 9 games in Sydney, can the Brumbies beat the Waratahs at Allianz Stadium on Sunday?

Bulls v Force

The last time the Bulls lost to an Australian team at Loftus Versfeld was 97 months ago, and it may not be wise to wager the family silver on them surrendering that winning streak against the Force on Saturday.

After an unhappy start, losing two consecutive games in Pretoria, the Bulls hit back with ferocity and a measure of finesse, notching up two wins, with 43 points against the Sharks and 39 against the Cheetahs. Despite their two early defeats, they have averaged 28 points per game.

The Force beat the Waratahs, but since then have lost all four. Their scrum and line-out success rates have been unimpressive, they have had the fewest clean breaks and the lowest tackling success rate of all 15 teams – not a formula for winning.

However, the Force have shown that they can pull off big wins when no-one expects them to emerge victorious and Saturday is an opportunity to turn their season around. But they are up against a Bulls team which has regained confidence.

The continued absence of their captain and talisman Matt Hodgson remains an ongoing setback for the Force, as flank and for his leadership. The Bulls have Victor Matfield (a Super Rugby player since 1999 and Springbok since 2001) on the bench and how they perform for the first 50 or 60 minutes without his hugely influential, charismatic presence may be pivotal to the teams’ fortunes on Saturday.

Key players: As always for the Bulls, Handré Pollard at 10. Grant Hattingh at 5 lock. Scrumhalf Rudy Paige needs to show he really is the Bulls best selection in the position. Arno Botha, a prodigious young loose forward talent capped by the Springboks at age 21 in 2013, but with his career stagnating through injury after only two Tests, is on the bench. For the Force: Rookie flank Kane Koteka, making his first Super Rugby start, and Steve Mafi, moving from lock to blindside flank. Sias Ebersohn, back in selection favour and starting at10. Left wing Nick Cummins, because he is the one Force back who can cause havoc with opposition defences.

The big match-ups: Pollard vs Ebersohn. At inside centre, Jan Serfontein vs Luke Burton. How well will Force right wing Marcel Brache cope with Bulls left wing François Hougaard? Hookers Adriaan Strauss and Nathan Charles.

Sharks v Chiefs

This could be one of the games of the season. Can the Chiefs win two in a row in SA after defeating the hitherto unbeaten Stormers at Newlands last week? They are fortunate to have both their SA games at sea level this year, and against an up-and-down Sharks team, this an ideal chance to take two from two.

The Sharks lost three of their first four games – looking somewhere between mediocre and awful in each of those defeats – before winning comfortably against the Cheetahs in Round 5. Are they on their way back to being title contenders? Saturday will point the way, either way.

The Chiefs gave the high-riding Stormers a lesson in varying the point and form of attack, support play, quick hands, off-loading, and using the width of the field. The Sharks will need to contain that, while launching attacks of their own more varied than one line-out driving maul after another. The benefits of the Chiefs superior conditioning in the fourth quarter of the game in the intense heat at Newlands, was an eye-opener too.

The loss to injury of Pieter-Steph du Toit – the best line-out jumper in Super Rugby this year, both for line-outs won on his own ball and number of steals – is a major setback for the Sharks. But the Chiefs have even bigger enforced withdrawal  issues, with centres Sonny Bill Williams and Tim Nanai-Williams both out after suffering injury against the Stormers. Andrew Horrell and Seta Tamanivalu take over the 12 and 13 jerseys, and face a challenging clash up against François Steyn and JP Pietersen.

Key players: For the Chiefs: Horrell and Tamanivalu, obviously. Left wing James Lowe has made the more clean breaks (11) in the first five rounds than any other player – the only player in double figures. He ran the Stormers ragged at Newlands. Right wing Bryce Heems has been in superb form too. The Sharks are hugely dependent on the two class acts in their backline, Pat Lambie and Frans Steyn. Veteran lock Marco Wentzel has to fill the major Sharks role played by Du Toit. Can SP Marais be more than a bit player at 15? Can he make a more substantial contribution to the Sharks performance?

The big match-ups: The front row – Beast Mtawarira, Bismarck du Plessis, Jannie du Plessis vs the new-look Chiefs front row comprising Jamie Mackintosh, Hika Elliot, and Siate Tokolahi. Last week’s Chiefs front row came off second best against the Stormers and the new props need to improve the Chiefs scrummaging performance considerably. On the wings, Odwa Ndungane vs James Lowe, and Lwazi Mvovo vs Bryce Heem. In contrast to the Chiefs wing duo, their Sharks counterparts have been no more than ordinary.

Waratahs v Brumbies

Big game for the Brumbies. Huge game for the Waratahs. And it’s Wallaby head coach Michael Cheika vs new Wallaby assistant coach Stephen Larkham.

If the Waratahs lose their third game in five, their quest to retain the Super Rugby title they won in 2014, will become a mammoth task, an unenviable uphill struggle. They have looked the part only in brief spurts this year, for the most part disappointing themselves, their demanding coach, and their fans. That coach also ultimately decides whether they take part in the World Cup or stay home. They need to start performing at their best and achieve a series of wins.

The Brumbies have looked a class act – in approach and organisation and level of skills. They execute their meticulously planned strategies with aplomb. The only game they lost came after dubious officiating just before the end of the game.

But they’re playing in Sydney on Sunday and history shows that the Brumbies have won only once in their last nine games in Sydney. This could end in a tight photo-finish. 

Key players: Can Israel Folau and Kurtley Beale spark the skilful attacking performance the Waratahs need? Is fullback the position where Folau can perform the most effectively, or should Cheika play him at outside centre? Michael Hooper is consistently excellent as openside flank, and his second half clash with David Pocock, when the latter plays off the bench, will be closely observed. Pocock’s much anticipated return from injury will boost the Brumbies campaign – and perhaps the Wallabies chances of winning the World Cup too. Also key to the Brumbies will be their impressive 8, Ita Vaea, making the most of his remarkable return from life-threatening illness, and the ever effective blindside flank Scott Fardy.

The big match-ups: Openside – Hooper vs Jarrad Butler and then Pocock. The scrumhalves/halfbacks – Nick Phipps vs Nic White. On the wing, Taqele Naiyaravoro vs Joe Tomane. At 13, Matt Carraro vs Tevita Kuridrani.

·         Stats courtesy of Opta Sports