Super Rugby Round 17 Preview Part 1

The penultimate round of Super Rugby sees the battle for spots among the top six qualifiers intensify, with the big prize being that of skipping the first playoff round by earning a home semi-final as one of the top two conference winners. The Hurricanes look set to end top of the log, but the quest for second place provides a tense contest.

Hurricanes v Highlanders

The Hurricanes lead the competition on 57 points, with the Highlanders on 48. If the latter secure five log points on Friday and the former no points, the New Zealand conference and top of the log position both open up. The Hurricanes gave their most disappointing performance of a stellar season in losing to the Crusaders in Round 16, while the Highlanders were superb in demolishing the Chiefs. These two teams play more creative, enterprising rugby than most and – despite the game being diminished by the Highlanders resting their three All Black backline stars – this clash could provide plenty of flair and skill.

Key players:
Happy news for the Hurricanes is that Beauden Barrett is back from injury to play 10. With Ma’a Nonu on All Black rest, Rey Lee-Lo is a key player at 12. Top performers, lock James Broadhurst and openside Ardie Savea, continue their quest for All Black recognition. With Ben Smith, Malakai Fekitoa, and Aaron Smith all rested, their replacements Mary Banks, Jason Emery, and Fumiaki Tanaka all become key players.

The big match-ups:
Wings Waisake Naholo and Julian Savea. Beauden Barrett vs Lima Sopoaga. Tanaka vs TJ Perenara

Force v Brumbies

It’s a straight shoot-out between the Brumbies and Waratahs for the Australian conference, with each team on 42 points. The Brumbies have the tougher last round fixture (vs Crusaders) than the Waratahs (vs Reds); thus earning five log points against the Force on Friday could be crucial to the Brumbies chances of winning the conference. The Force lie 15^th out of 15 teams, with 12 defeats in 14 matches, and hard as they try, just do not have the players to earn more than a few surprise wins in the course of the season. They’ll hope Round 17 will provide one of those rare wins, but if the Brumbies play anywhere close to ability, they should pick up five points.

Key players:
For the Force, Sam Wykes returns to play his last game for the Force before moving to Japan. New halves pairing Alby Mathewson and Zack Holmes. Lock Sam Carter’s medial ligament injury means replacement Blake Enever becomes an important player for the Brumbies. Christian Lealiifano at 10 with Matt Toomua still out. Openside standard-bearer David Pocock.

The big match-ups:
Pocock vs Matt Hodgson. Wings Henry Speight and Nick Cummins. Feisty Mathewson vs feisty Nic White.

Rebels v Bulls

The Rebels have struggled (six wins, eight losses) because they lack quality and depth in personnel. The Bulls have lost seven of their 14 matches despite having quality and depth. Questions are being asked about the Bulls coaching and strategy and selection, with head coach Frans Ludeke under scrutiny and his future not all that secure. The Rebels came close to beating the Sharks in Durban in Round 16, despite playing with 14 men for much of the game, while the Bulls have had a miserable Australasian tour. On talent, the Bulls should certainly win this match, but there is more to winning games than running onto the field with talented players, and they won’t find the Rebels in any way a pushover.

Key players:
For the Bulls, Jacques-Louis Potgieter at 10 and Callie Visagie at hooker in place of Handré Pollard and Adriaan Strauss respectively, both on Springbok rest. Victor Matfield, back in the 5 jersey. Jesse Kriel, their exciitng running, counter-attacking fullback. For the Rebels, their two consistent standouts, Scott Higginbotham and Sean McMahon. Tamati Ellison back from injury at 13.

The big match-ups:
Higginbotham vs Pierre Spies. McMahon vs Jacques du Plessis. Matfield vs Lopeti Timani.

Blues v Crusaders

The Crusaders performances have ranged between wretched and sublime, but they do come off their best display of 2015, an impressive win over the log-leading Hurricanes. It’s not impossible for them to squeeze into the last six for playoffs, but it’d take other teams’ upset defeats – disappointing considering the ability of the players in their squad. Whatever else happens, they’ll want to end on a high in the final two rounds. The Blues have managed only three wins, with 11 defeats, which is just not good enough for a team with the talent to fare far better. Besieged coach Sir John Kirwan could conceivably be in the last throes of his reign as Blues coach.

Key players:
Dan Carter starts again at 10 and Richie McCaw at openside and as captain. What a difference that made last week. The magnificent attacking wing Nemani Nadolo. For the Blues, four youngsters: Debutant Airi Hunt at 8, and getting their first starts, fullback Matt Vaega, lock Will Lloyd, and blindside flank Joe Edwards.

The big match-ups:
At scrumhalf, inexperienced 21 year old Mitchell Drummond vs wily 33 year old Jimmy Cowan. McCaw vs Brendon O’Connor. At 13, Robbie Fruean vs Hamish Northcott.