Rugby World Cup 2023 Pool D permutations

Rugby World Cup 2023 Pool D permutations

With the Rugby World Cup 2023 quarter-final line-ups still uncertain, here are the full pool permutations with one round of matches left to play.

With one round of the Rugby World Cup 2023 pool phase left to play, only two teams - Wales and England - are already guaranteed qualification for the quarter-finals. Six places in the last eight are still to play for and below we outline how results in each of the pools could still affect the outcome. 

These permutations also highlight teams who can secure automatic qualification for Rugby World Cup 2027 by finishing no lower than third in their pool.

Pool D

Qualified for quarter-finals: England

Chile cannot gain automatic qualification for Rugby World Cup 2027 or a quarter-final spot as they have zero points with no games left to play. The only team to have secured a quarter-final spot and automatic qualification for 2027 is England. This means the other quarter-final place and the two remaining automatic qualification spots will be decided between Argentina, Japan and Samoa:

  • England are already confirmed as Pool D winners (having beaten both Argentina and Japan).
  • Winner of Japan v Argentina will qualify for quarter-finals as runner-up.
  • A draw could be enough to secure second place for Japan or Argentina, depending on whether one or both secure a try-bonus point and Samoa’s result against England.
  • If both get try-scoring bonus points in a draw, Argentina will finish second on points difference (+46 to +18).
  • If the match ends in a draw, Japan must be the only team to get a try-scoring bonus point to finish second.
  • If neither get a bonus point in the draw, Samoa must beat England by 29 points and get a try-bonus point to have the best points difference of the three teams to finish second (+47). Argentina would then finish third on points difference from Japan to qualify for RWC 2027.

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